In September, all three of the key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income, mortgage rates, and an unadjusted house price index, increased compared with a year ago. When household income rises, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates and house prices increase, consumer house-buying power decreases. The ... Read More ›

Yesterday’s Census Bureau report for October indicated that we are falling short of adding homes to the market in the short-term, as completions decreased 6.5 percent compared with October of last year. Read More ›

While the housing market continues to underperform its potential by 6.5 percent, the gap between actual existing home sales and the market potential for home sales narrowed by 1 percent in October compared with September, according to our Potential Homes Sales model. The housing market has the potential to support more than 391,000 additional home ... Read More ›

Last week, the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate hit a seven-and-a-half-year high of 4.86 percent. Most experts believe mortgage rates will continue to rise, reaching 5 percent in 2019. Read More ›

Understanding the dynamics that influence consumer house-buying power, how much home one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, provides helpful perspective on the housing market. When incomes rise, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates or nominal house prices rise, consumer house-buying power declines. Our ... Read More ›

For the first time in eight months, the Loan Application Defect Index for purchase transactions increased compared with the month before, rising 1.3 percent in September over August. Year over year, the Defect Index for purchase transactions decreased 11.1 percent. The Defect Index for refinance transactions also increased by 1.4 percent compared ... Read More ›