Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

Are Negative Mortgage Rates On The Horizon?

By Odeta Kushi on March 18, 2020

Given both emergency rate cuts of the Federal Reserve and the recent economic uncertainty due to the spread of the Coronavirus, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level in 150 years, according to  Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller. For added perspective, that takes us back to the time of Ulysses S. Grant’s presidency. The 10-year...

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Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve economic outlook

What Global Uncertainty Means For The Housing Market

By Mark Fleming on January 10, 2020

Global events and uncertainty, such as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, clearly impacts geopolitical relations, but also impacts the U.S. economy, and more specifically, the U.S. housing market. How? Against a backdrop of uncertainty, investors worldwide look for a safe place to put their money. U.S. bonds, backed by the full faith and...

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Topics: Interest Rates Real House Price Index Federal Reserve Affordability

Why Our Economy Is Generating More Investment Growth In IP Than IT

By Odeta Kushi on October 16, 2019

Important, but easy to overlook shifts in investment trends may be contributing to our current era of low interest rates. An excess supply of global savings relative to the demand for that money for investments is driving down interest rates, which can be thought of as the price of money. The neutral rate of interest, which is monitored by the...

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Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve

What Is The Neutral Rate Of Interest And How Does It Influence The Federal Reserve?

By Mark Fleming on September 17, 2019

Many people understand the “natural rate of unemployment,” and if you don’t, you can probably guess what it is – the rate of unemployment when the labor market reaches equilibrium. What many people don’t know is that a similar concept exists in monetary policy.

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Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve

Interview On FOXBusiness: Discussing The Outlook For The U.S. Economy, Federal Reserve Policy And The State Of The Job Market

By FirstAm Editor on September 6, 2019

First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming was interviewed on FOXBusiness earlier this week and discussed the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policy and the state of the job market.

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Topics: In The News Interest Rates Federal Reserve

Interviews On CNBC And Nightly Business Report: Discussing The Refinance Boom And Tailwinds Boosting The Housing Market

By FirstAm Editor on September 3, 2019

First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming was interviewed on CNBC and Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi was interviewed on Nightly Business Report last week, where they discussed the refinance boom driven by low mortgage rates and the tailwinds boosting the housing market.

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Topics: Housing In The News Interest Rates Federal Reserve Affordability