Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

What Do Previous Rising Mortgage Rate Eras Tell Us About Today's Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on December 17, 2018

In November, the housing market underperformed its potential by 7.4 percent, marking 40 straight months the market remained below its potential, according to our Potential Homes Sales Model. Month over month, the gap between actual existing-home sales and the market potential for home sales narrowed by 1.2 percent, but the housing market still...

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Topics: Potential Home Sales, Interest Rates, homeownership, Federal Reserve, Insider

Do Rising Rates Outweigh The Impact Of The Strong Economy On Housing Market Potential?

By Mark Fleming on November 19, 2018

While the housing market continues to underperform its potential by 6.5 percent, the gap between actual existing home sales and the market potential for home sales narrowed by 1 percent in October compared with September, according to our Potential Homes Sales model. The housing market has the potential to support more than 391,000 additional...

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Topics: Potential Home Sales, Interest Rates, homeownership, Federal Reserve, Insider

Why The Housing Market Can Thrive At 5 Percent Mortgage Rates

By Mark Fleming on November 12, 2018

Last week, the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate hit a seven-and-a-half-year high of 4.86 percent. Most experts believe mortgage rates will continue to rise, reaching 5 percent in 2019.

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Topics: Affordability, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Insider

Why Homeowners Staying In Their Homes Dampens The Housing Market

By Mark Fleming on October 18, 2018

While the housing market continues to underperform its potential by 7.2 percent, the gap between actual existing home sales and the market potential for home sales narrowed by 1 percent in September compared with August, according to our Potential Homes Sales model. However, even though the performance gap narrowed a bit, the housing market...

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Topics: Interest Rates, homeownership, Federal Reserve, Insider

What's The Outlook For Housing Market Potential Amid Rising Mortgage Rates?

By Mark Fleming on June 18, 2018

With the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision to increase the Federal Funds Rate last week, the prospect of higher mortgage rates remains top of mind among real estate professionals and continues to generate headlines. Yet, changes to the short-term rate matter little to the housing market.

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Insider, Housing

What Does The Change In The 10-Year Treasury Note Mean For Housing Affordability

By Mark Fleming on May 7, 2018

At the May Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting last week, all eyes were on the 10-year Treasury yield. In late April, that yield topped 3 percent for the first time in more than four years. With yields on the rise, housing market participants expect this to mean higher interest rates from central banks. It’s often overlooked that the popular 30-year,...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Affordability, Real House Price Index, Insider, Housing

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