Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

The Good, the Bad and the Maybe Ahead of Spring Home Buying

By Mark Fleming on March 19, 2021

In February 2021, housing market potential increased to its highest level since 2007, despite the largest month-over-month jump in mortgage rates since October 2019. Housing market potential rose 1.3 percent in February relative to the previous month, ... Read More›

Interest Rates Federal Reserve Homeownership Potential Home Sales

Is the Economy Stuck in Neutral?

By Odeta Kushi on February 3, 2021

When determining where to set the federal funds rate, the Federal Reserve studies a multitude of models and analyses, including the neutral rate of interest. The neutral “what” you ask? The neutral rate of interest is the short-term interest rate that ... Read More›

Interest Rates Federal Reserve

Are Negative Mortgage Rates on the Horizon?

By Odeta Kushi on March 18, 2020

Given both emergency rate cuts of the Federal Reserve and the recent economic uncertainty due to the spread of the Coronavirus, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to its lowest level in 150 years, according to Read More›

Interest Rates Federal Reserve

What Global Uncertainty Means for the Housing Market

By Mark Fleming on January 10, 2020

Global events and uncertainty, such as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, clearly impacts geopolitical relations, but also impacts the U.S. economy, and more specifically, the U.S. housing market. How? Against a backdrop of uncertainty, investors ... Read More›

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Federal Reserve Affordability

Why Our Economy Is Generating More Investment Growth in IP than IT

By Odeta Kushi on October 16, 2019

Important, but easy to overlook shifts in investment trends may be contributing to our current era of low interest rates. An excess supply of global savings relative to the demand for that money for investments is driving down interest rates, which can... Read More›

Interest Rates Federal Reserve

What is the Neutral Rate of Interest and How Does it Influence the Federal Reserve?

By Mark Fleming on September 17, 2019

Many people understand the “natural rate of unemployment,” and if you don’t, you can probably guess what it is – the rate of unemployment when the labor market reaches equilibrium. What many people don’t know is that a similar concept exists in monetar... Read More›

Interest Rates Federal Reserve