Last week, the yield curve inverted, meaning the yield on short-run Treasury bonds exceeded the yield on long-run Treasury bonds, which prompted increased speculation that a recession may be on the horizon. The speculation is rooted in the historical correlation between yield curve inversions and recessions, which have occasionally followed one to ... Read More ›

For the second month in a row, the Loan Application Defect Index for purchase transactions increased in October compared with the previous month. Year over year, the Defect Index for purchase transactions decreased 8.9 percent compared with October 2017. The Defect Index for refinance transactions increased 1.4 percent compared with the previous ... Read More ›

Throughout 2018, we’ve seen many trends that set the groundwork for the acceleration of financial technology (fintech) adoption. It has been a strong seller’s market across the top U.S. metropolitan areas. With inventory low and house prices at historic highs, prospective home buyers felt pressured to settle deals quickly before opportunities fade ... Read More ›

In September, all three of the key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income, mortgage rates, and an unadjusted house price index, increased compared with a year ago. When household income rises, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates and house prices increase, consumer house-buying power decreases. The ... Read More ›

Yesterday’s Census Bureau report for October indicated that we are falling short of adding homes to the market in the short-term, as completions decreased 6.5 percent compared with October of last year. Read More ›

While the housing market continues to underperform its potential by 6.5 percent, the gap between actual existing home sales and the market potential for home sales narrowed by 1 percent in October compared with September, according to our Potential Homes Sales model. The housing market has the potential to support more than 391,000 additional home ... Read More ›