Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

How Mortgage Rates Have Fueled Housing Market Potential Amid The Pandemic

By Mark Fleming on June 18, 2020

The early signs of a housing market comeback that appeared in mid-April, rising weekly purchase loan applications, continued to surge through May and into June. In fact, weekly purchase loan applications have now exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Why The Pandemic Has Worsened The Housing Supply Shortage

By Mark Fleming on May 20, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic continued its historic assault on the domestic and global economy in April, and the housing market did not go unscathed. Typically, the hot spring home-buying season would be in full swing in April, but pandemic-related impacts, including shelter-in-place orders, the rapid surge in unemployment, and declining consumer...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

The Impact Of The Credit Crunch On Housing Market Potential

By Mark Fleming on April 17, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic continues to take hold of the domestic and global economy. The housing market, although in a better position than it was at the onset of the last recession, will not be immune to the impact. Weekly unemployment claims have soared to record highs, which has already contributed to declining consumer confidence.

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Housing Market Potential Reaches Its Highest Level In Nearly Two Years

By Mark Fleming on February 20, 2020

The housing market started the year off strong, with the market potential for existing-home sales reaching its highest level since January 2018, according to our Potential Home Sales Model. Housing market potential increased 1.4 percent in January 2020 relative to the previous month, and grew 4.7 percent year over year, an increase of 240,050...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

How Low Mortgage Rates Help And Hurt Housing Market Potential

By Mark Fleming on January 22, 2020

The final month of 2019 saw actual existing-home sales exceed housing market potential by 1.2 percent, or an estimated 64,830 seasonally adjusted annualized sales. According to our Potential Home Sales Model, housing market potential increased 1.7 percent in December 2019 relative to the previous month, and grew 2.6 percent year over year, an...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Will Housing Market Potential In 2020 Exceed 2019?

By Mark Fleming on December 18, 2019

In November 2019, the housing market outperformed its potential, as actual existing-home sales exceeded market potential by 2.8 percent, or an estimated 146,340 seasonally adjusted annualized sales. Housing market potential increased 1.4 percent relative to last month and 3.9 percent compared with November of last year, an increase of 196,480...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure