Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

How Homebodies Hold Down Home Sales

By Odeta Kushi on March 19, 2019

First American’s most recent Potential Home Sales model for January 2019 found a 5.7 percent decline in the market potential for existing home sales, compared to the previous year. Increasing tenure length (the length of time a homeowner stays in their home before moving) was the most prominent factor leading to this decline.

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Topics: homeownership, Potential Home Sales, tenure

Six More Months Of Housing Winter Or Early Spring Home-Buying Season?

By Mark Fleming on February 20, 2019

In the first month of the new year, the housing market continued to underperform its potential, but gave us signs of promise for the future. Actual existing-home sales are 5.3 percent below the market’s potential, according to our Potential Home Sales model. That means the market has the potential to support 293,000 more home sales than the...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Insider, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

Can Stock Market Volatility Help Home Buyers?

By Mark Fleming on January 21, 2019

In December, the market potential for existing-home sales in December increased 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.15 million compared with a year ago, but the housing market still underperformed its potential by 9.6 percent, according to our Potential Homes Sales Model. Month over month, the gap between actual...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Insider, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

Blame The Homebodies: Why Are Homeowners Staying In Their Homes So Long?

By Mark Fleming on January 11, 2019

It’s been over six years since house prices hit their trough and the housing market bottomed out. Since then, house prices have recovered nationally and reached historic highs. The price recovery has most recently been driven by a supply shortage. The availability of homes for sale is running near historic lows because single-family housing...

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Topics: Housing, Insider, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

What Do Previous Rising Mortgage Rate Eras Tell Us About Today's Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on December 17, 2018

In November, the housing market underperformed its potential by 7.4 percent, marking 40 straight months the market remained below its potential, according to our Potential Homes Sales Model. Month over month, the gap between actual existing-home sales and the market potential for home sales narrowed by 1.2 percent, but the housing market still...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Insider, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

Do Rising Rates Outweigh The Impact Of The Strong Economy On Housing Market Potential?

By Mark Fleming on November 19, 2018

While the housing market continues to underperform its potential by 6.5 percent, the gap between actual existing home sales and the market potential for home sales narrowed by 1 percent in October compared with September, according to our Potential Homes Sales model. The housing market has the potential to support more than 391,000 additional...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Insider, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

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