Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

Rising Rates Unlikely To Substantially Cool Hot Spring Home-Buying Season

By Mark Fleming on April 16, 2021

After hitting its highest point since 2007 last month, housing market potential fell modestly in March, according to our Potential Home Sales Model. Housing market potential remains near the 13-year high point, but the severely limited supply of homes for sale and an uptick in mortgage rates pulled market potential for existing-home sales off...

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Topics: Interest Rates Homeownership Potential Home Sales

The Good, The Bad And The Maybe Ahead Of Spring Home Buying

By Mark Fleming on March 19, 2021

In February 2021, housing market potential increased to its highest level since 2007, despite the largest month-over-month jump in mortgage rates since October 2019. Housing market potential rose 1.3 percent in February relative to the previous month, and 12.2 percent year-over-year. While rising average tenure length was the largest drag on...

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Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve Homeownership Potential Home Sales

Housing Market Potential Poised To Grow In 2021

By Odeta Kushi on February 18, 2021

At the onset of 2021, positive housing market dynamics powered growth in the market potential for existing-home sales, offsetting negative market supply dynamics. Millions more millennials will age into their prime home-buying age in 2021, and they will do so at a time of historically low mortgage rates. Working against them is the extremely...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Why Housing Market Potential May Build On Momentum From Historic 2020

By Mark Fleming on January 22, 2021

In the final month of 2020, the market potential for existing-home sales reached its highest point since 2007, rising to a 6.18 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of sales. While the winter months are traditionally real estate’s slow season, the housing market had one more surprise for us in 2020 as our measure of the market...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

What Will Drive Housing Market Potential In 2021?

By Mark Fleming on December 21, 2020

The housing market continues to impress, even as it enters the colder months, which is traditionally real estate’s slow season. After falling to a near-decade low in May due to pandemic-driven pressures, existing-home sales hit a 14-year high in October. In November, our measure of the market potential for existing-home sales increased 10...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

What Does The Housing Market’s Historic Pandemic Rebound Mean For 2021?

By Mark Fleming on November 18, 2020

The housing market’s historic rebound since bottoming in the spring has been nothing short of amazing. After falling to a near-decade low in May, existing-home sales hit a 14-year high in September. In October, our measure of market potential for existing-home sales increased 9.0 percent compared with one year ago to a 5.98 million seasonally...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure