Will Falling Mortgage Rates Spark an Existing-Home Sales Rush to Close 2023?

By Mark Fleming on December 18, 2023
In the month of October, existing-home sales hit the lowest level since 2010 as a result of the higher mortgage rate environment. Rising mortgage rates reduce affordability, all else held equal, for buyers and strengthen the rate lock-in effect for potential sellers. However, mortgage rates declined in November, igniting cautious optimism in the ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure Mortgage Rates

The Blight, the Bright, and What Seems Just Right in 2024

By Mark Fleming on November 21, 2023
The surge in mortgage rates from mid-2022 through 2023 triggered a housing recession, with the most pronounced impact felt in a steep decline in sales, while prices have remained relatively stable. Specifically, existing-home sales plunged to a more than 12-year low in September of this year. Rising mortgage rates have a dual impact on the housing ... Read More

Potential Home Sales Mortgage Rates

1980s Déjà Vu for the Housing Market

By Mark Fleming on October 17, 2023
The average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate trended upward throughout September, approaching 8 percent in early October. Higher mortgage rates have a dual impact on the housing market – reducing affordability for buyers and strengthening the rate lock-in effect for potential sellers. The combination of reduced affordability and an even stronger rate ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Return of the Housing Recession

By Mark Fleming on September 18, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, decreased by 0.2 percent in August, and remains 3.4 percent lower than one year ago. While it seems that the steep decline in sales driven by the rapid rise in mortgage rates is behind ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Housing Market Potential Increases, Despite Strengthening Rate Lock-In Effect

By Mark Fleming on August 21, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, increased by 1 percent in July, but remains nearly 2 percent lower than one year ago. The yearly decline in market potential was the smallest since February 2022. The steep decline in ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Have Existing-Home Sales Bottomed Out?

By Mark Fleming on July 19, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, decreased modestly in June, and remains 2.8 percent lower than one year ago. Mortgage rates have risen substantially since the spring of 2022, and higher rates have a dual impact on sales ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure