Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

What’s The Outlook For Housing Market Potential For The Rest Of 2019?

By Mark Fleming on October 18, 2019

In September 2019, the housing market performed to its potential, as actual existing-home sales were a marginal 0.04 percent, or an estimated 2,340 seasonally adjusted annualized sales, below market potential. Housing market potential decreased relative to last month, but increased 3.8 percent compared with September of last year. Indeed, in...

Read More

Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

How Can Existing-Home Sales Exceed Market Potential?

By Mark Fleming on September 18, 2019

The housing market exceeded its potential in August 2019, as actual existing-home sales were 0.8 percent above the market’s potential. Housing market potential increased relative to last month, but declined 1.9 percent compared with August of last year. While down compared with a year ago, existing-home sales have slightly outperformed market...

Read More

Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

What Does Increasing Tenure Length Mean For The Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on August 20, 2019

The housing market essentially reached its potential in July 2019, as actual existing-home sales were 0.05 percent above the market’s potential. Existing-home sales in 2019 are running at a pace similar to 2015, even though rates have fallen and household income has increased this year. Housing market potential benefitted from a 10.6 percent...

Read More

Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve Homeownership Potential Home Sales

Why Lower Mortgage Rates Have Not Closed The Housing Market Performance Gap

By Mark Fleming on July 19, 2019

The housing market underperformed its potential in June 2019, as actual existing-home sales were 1.5 percent below the market’s potential. The market potential for existing-home sales increased 1.1 percent compared with May, according to our Potential Home Sales model.

Read More

Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve Homeownership Potential Home Sales

Why The Housing Market Has Entered An Unprecedented Homebody Era

By Mark Fleming on June 20, 2019

The housing market outperformed its potential in May 2019. Actual existing-home sales are 0.2 percent above the market’s current potential, according to our Potential Home Sales model. Even as mortgage rates have decreased, and household income has increased, the market is underperforming compared to it’s potential from a year ago. What are the...

Read More

Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve Homeownership Potential Home Sales

Why Did Housing Market Potential Improve In April?

By Mark Fleming on May 20, 2019

The housing market continued to underperform its potential in April 2019, but the performance gap shrank compared with March. Actual existing-home sales remain 1.3 percent below the market’s potential, but the performance gap narrowed from 2.0 percent last month, according to our Potential Home Sales model. That means the housing market has the...

Read More

Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve Homeownership Potential Home Sales