Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

Recent Posts by Mark Fleming

Mark Fleming is the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation and leads First American’s Decision Sciences team.

Where Is Housing Overvalued?

By Mark Fleming on September 27, 2022

Housing affordability continued its rapid annual decline in July 2022, as nominal house prices increased 16.7 percent year over year and the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased 2.5 percentage points compared with a year ago.... Read More›

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Why Housing Market Potential Increased For The First Time In Nearly A Year

By Mark Fleming on September 21, 2022

August marked the first time in nearly a year that housing market potential increased on a monthly basis, increasing 2.1 percent compared with July to an estimated pace of 5.61 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). The month-over-mon... Read More›

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Where Are House Prices Moderating The Most?

By Mark Fleming on August 29, 2022

In June 2022, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) jumped up by 53.3 percent on an annual basis, setting a new record for the fifth month in a row for the fastest year-over-year growth in the more than 30-year history of the serie... Read More›

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Is This The Great Normalization Of The Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on August 17, 2022

According to our Potential Home Sales Model, the market potential for existing-home sales in July was estimated to be 5.45 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), down 0.2 percent compared with last month, and 14.4 percent lower than o... Read More›

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Will Rising Mortgage Rates Trigger An 'arms' Race For Home Buyers?

By Mark Fleming on July 22, 2022

In May 2022, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) jumped up by 50.8 percent year over year, which is the fastest growth in the more than 30-year history of the series. This rapid annual decline in affordability was driven by a 20.... Read More›

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

How The Fundamentals Influencing Housing Market Potential Have Changed

By Mark Fleming on July 20, 2022

The market potential for existing-home sales in June was estimated to be 5.47 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), down 2.5 percent compared to last month, and 13.1 percent lower than one year ago, which is near the same level as in... Read More›

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure