Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

Mark Fleming

Recent Posts

Blame The Homebodies: Why Are Homeowners Staying In Their Homes So Long?

By Mark Fleming on January 11, 2019

It’s been over six years since house prices hit their trough and the housing market bottomed out. Since then, house prices have recovered nationally and reached historic highs. The price recovery has most recently been driven by a supply shortage. The availability of homes for sale is running near historic lows because single-family housing...

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Topics: homeownership, Housing, Potential Home Sales, Insider

Defect Risk Jumps Nationally, Partially Influenced By Rising Defect Risk In California Wildfire Areas

By Mark Fleming on December 26, 2018

In November, the Loan Application Defect Index for purchase transactions continued its string of month-over-month increases, rising for the third month in a row. Yet, year over year, the Defect Index for purchase transactions remains 7.7 percent below its level in November 2017. The Defect Index for refinance transactions also increased 2.8...

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Topics: Loan Application Defect Index, Fraud

How Does A Strong Economy Slow The Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on December 21, 2018

For the second consecutive month, all three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income, mortgage rates, and the unadjusted house price index, increased compared with a year ago. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage and the unadjusted house price index increased by 0.9 percentage points and 7.3 percent respectively. Even...

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Topics: Real House Price Index, Affordability, Insider, Interest Rates

Will Homebuilders Deliver The Gift Of More Housing Supply This Year?

By Mark Fleming on December 19, 2018

Yesterday, the Census Bureau released its Residential Construction report for November. Housing completions decreased 3.9 percent compared with last November and continue to fall short of the number of new housing units necessary to keep pace with household formation. Housing starts also decreased 3.6 percent in November compared with a year...

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Topics: Housing, homeownership, housing starts, Insider

What Do Previous Rising Mortgage Rate Eras Tell Us About Today's Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on December 17, 2018

In November, the housing market underperformed its potential by 7.4 percent, marking 40 straight months the market remained below its potential, according to our Potential Homes Sales Model. Month over month, the gap between actual existing-home sales and the market potential for home sales narrowed by 1.2 percent, but the housing market still...

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Topics: Potential Home Sales, Interest Rates, homeownership, Federal Reserve, Insider

What Does An Inverted Yield Curve Mean For The Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on December 12, 2018

Last week, the yield curve inverted, meaning the yield on short-run Treasury bonds exceeded the yield on long-run Treasury bonds, which prompted increased speculation that a recession may be on the horizon. The speculation is rooted in the historical correlation between yield curve inversions and recessions, which have occasionally followed one...

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Topics: Housing, Affordability

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