Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

Why Did Housing Market Potential Improve In April?

By Mark Fleming on May 20, 2019

The housing market continued to underperform its potential in April 2019, but the performance gap shrank compared with March. Actual existing-home sales remain 1.3 percent below the market’s potential, but the performance gap narrowed from 2.0 percent last month, according to our Potential Home Sales model. That means the housing market has the...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

How Have The 2017 Tax Law Changes Impacted Real Estate Prices?

By Odeta Kushi on May 13, 2019

Enacted in 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced tax breaks for homeowners. At the time, many in the real estate industry expected the changes to negatively impact the housing market, particularly in high-priced neighborhoods. The industry concern primarily focused on two specific changes included in the bill: the mortgage interest deduction...

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Topics: Affordability, Taxes, homeownership

Two Trends Boost Home-Buyer Demand As Spring Home-Buying Season Begins

By Mark Fleming on April 18, 2019

While the housing market continued to underperform its potential in March 2019, the green shoots of spring home buying have emerged. Actual existing-home sales are 2.3 percent below the market’s potential, narrowing the gap from last month, according to our Potential Home Sales model. That means the housing market has the potential to support...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

Why The Stage Is Set For A Stronger Spring Home-Buying Season

By Mark Fleming on March 21, 2019

In February 2019, the housing market continued to underperform its potential, but showed signs of promise leading into the spring home-buying season. Actual existing-home sales are 2.5 percent below the market’s potential, according to our Potential Home Sales model. That means the market has the potential to support 127,000 more home sales at...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Insider, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

How Homebodies Hold Down Home Sales

By Odeta Kushi on March 19, 2019

First American’s most recent Potential Home Sales model for January 2019 found a 5.7 percent decline in the market potential for existing home sales, compared to the previous year. Increasing tenure length (the length of time a homeowner stays in their home before moving) was the most prominent factor leading to this decline.

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Topics: homeownership, Potential Home Sales, tenure

What Will It Take To Reduce The Housing Supply Deficit?

By Mark Fleming on March 6, 2019

Last week, the Census Bureau released its Residential Construction report for December. Housing completions decreased 8.4 percent compared with last December and continued to fall short of the number of new housing units necessary to keep pace with household formation. Housing starts also decreased 10.9 percent in December compared with a year...

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Topics: Housing, Insider, housing starts, homeownership

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