Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

What’s The Outlook For Housing Market Potential For The Rest Of 2019?

By Mark Fleming on October 18, 2019

In September 2019, the housing market performed to its potential, as actual existing-home sales were a marginal 0.04 percent, or an estimated 2,340 seasonally adjusted annualized sales, below market potential. Housing market potential decreased relative to last month, but increased 3.8 percent compared with September of last year. Indeed, in...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Why Our Economy Is Generating More Investment Growth In IP Than IT

By Odeta Kushi on October 16, 2019

Important, but easy to overlook shifts in investment trends may be contributing to our current era of low interest rates. An excess supply of global savings relative to the demand for that money for investments is driving down interest rates, which can be thought of as the price of money. The neutral rate of interest, which is monitored by the...

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Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve

How 2019 Became The Year Of Declining Fraud Risk

By Mark Fleming on September 26, 2019

Declining for the fifth consecutive month, the Loan Application Defect Index for purchase transactions continued its downward trend, falling 3.8 percent in August compared with July. The Defect Index for refinance transactions also fell, declining 4.3 percent compared with the previous month. The overall Defect Index, which includes both...

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Topics: Fraud Loan Application Defect Index

Interview On Nightly Business Report: Discussing Surge In Potential Housing Supply

By FirstAm Editor on September 24, 2019

First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi was interviewed on Nightly Business Report last week and discussed the dramatic jump in housing starts to a 12-year high, signaling the potential for some housing supply relief in the near future.

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Topics: Housing In The News Interest Rates housing starts

How Did Affordability Change During The Spring Home-Buying Season?

By Mark Fleming on September 23, 2019

School bells ringing don’t just mark the beginning of a new school year, but for those in housing, they also signal the end of the typical home-buying season, which begins in March. As the school year begins, the housing market is finishing the spring home-buying season with strong marks for affordability. Indeed, two of the three key drivers...

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Topics: Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

How Can Existing-Home Sales Exceed Market Potential?

By Mark Fleming on September 18, 2019

The housing market exceeded its potential in August 2019, as actual existing-home sales were 0.8 percent above the market’s potential. Housing market potential increased relative to last month, but declined 1.9 percent compared with August of last year. While down compared with a year ago, existing-home sales have slightly outperformed market...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure