Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

Has Rising House-Buying Power Accelerated House Price Appreciation?

By Mark Fleming on November 26, 2019

Two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income and mortgage rates, modestly swung in favor of increased affordability in September, yet affordability declined month over month. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell by 0.01 percentage points and household income increased 0.03 percent compared with August...

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Topics: Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

What Do Rising Rates And Tenure Length Mean For Housing Market Potential In 2020?

By Mark Fleming on November 20, 2019

In October 2019, the housing market exceeded its potential, as actual existing-home sales exceeded market potential by 4.6 percent, or an estimated 239,000 seasonally adjusted annualized sales. Housing market potential decreased relative to last month, but increased 0.6 percent compared with October of last year.

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

The Dynamic Forces That Re-Shaped Housing Affordability In 2019

By Mark Fleming on October 28, 2019

Understanding the dynamics that influence consumer house-buying power, how much home one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, provides a helpful perspective on the housing market. When incomes rise, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates or nominal house prices rise, consumer house-buying power declines....

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Topics: Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

What’s The Outlook For Housing Market Potential For The Rest Of 2019?

By Mark Fleming on October 18, 2019

In September 2019, the housing market performed to its potential, as actual existing-home sales were a marginal 0.04 percent, or an estimated 2,340 seasonally adjusted annualized sales, below market potential. Housing market potential decreased relative to last month, but increased 3.8 percent compared with September of last year. Indeed, in...

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Topics: Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Why Our Economy Is Generating More Investment Growth In IP Than IT

By Odeta Kushi on October 16, 2019

Important, but easy to overlook shifts in investment trends may be contributing to our current era of low interest rates. An excess supply of global savings relative to the demand for that money for investments is driving down interest rates, which can be thought of as the price of money. The neutral rate of interest, which is monitored by the...

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Topics: Interest Rates Federal Reserve

Interview On Nightly Business Report: Discussing Surge In Potential Housing Supply

By FirstAm Editor on September 24, 2019

First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi was interviewed on Nightly Business Report last week and discussed the dramatic jump in housing starts to a 12-year high, signaling the potential for some housing supply relief in the near future.

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Topics: Housing In The News Interest Rates housing starts