Affordability Crunch Likely Unchanged Through End of the Year

By Mark Fleming on July 3, 2024
Apart from the fall of 2023, affordability in May reached its lowest level in over three decades. On a year-over-year basis, affordability declined by nearly 9 percent. Two factors drove the sharp annualized drop in affordability – a 5.9 percent annual increase in nominal house prices, according to our First American Data & Analytics House ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Affordability Challenges Prompt a House Price Slowdown

By Mark Fleming on May 28, 2024
Mortgage rates continued their spring surge in April 2024, rising to the highest level in five months and helping drag affordability down by 1.5 percent compared with March, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). On an annualized basis, affordability decreased by 9 percent. Two factors drove the year-over-year decline in affordability – a ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

An Overvalued Housing Market May Be Returning

By Mark Fleming on April 29, 2024
In March 2024, mortgage rates increased and affordability fell modestly by 0.1 percent compared with February, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). On an annualized basis, affordability decreased by approximately 5 percent. Two factors drove the year-over-year decline in affordability – a 6.2 percent annual increase in nominal house ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Sales Activity Driven by the Five Ds Amid Persistent Market Headwinds

By Odeta Kushi on April 10, 2024
Our Existing-Home Sales Outlook Report ‘nowcasts’ existing-home sales based on the historical relationship between sales, demographic trends, house-buying power, and the prevailing financial and economic conditions. Based on our nowcast, we expect March existing-home sales to rise 1.7 percent compared with February, but remain approximately 16 ... Read More

Interest Rates Federal Reserve Mortgage Rates Existing-Home Sales

How “Higher for Longer” Impacts the Housing Market

By Mark Fleming on March 22, 2024
In January 2024, mortgage rates declined and affordability improved by nearly 2 percent compared with December, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). However, on an annualized basis, affordability decreased by approximately 7 percent. Two factors drove the sharp annualized drop in affordability – a 7.1 percent annual increase in nominal ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

New Existing-Home Sales Outlook Report Projects February Uptick in Sales, Despite Rising Mortgage Rates

By Mark Fleming on March 13, 2024
On average, nearly 40 percent of all existing-home sales in a year occur during the spring home-buying season between April and June. The warming weather and the end of the academic school year make for a more optimal time to move and fuel the seasonal increase in housing market activity. In the spring of 2023, home sales were lackluster. Housing ... Read More

Interest Rates Federal Reserve Potential Home Sales Mortgage Rates