In November, year-over-year nominal house price appreciation reached 21.5 percent, the sixth consecutive month it has set a new record. According to our Real House Price Index (RHPI) - which measures housing affordability based on changes in income, interest rates and nominal house prices - affordability declined 21.0 percent compared with a year ... Read More ›

The final Potential Home Sales Model report of 2021 revealed that market potential ended the year on a strong note. While the winter months are traditionally real estate’s slow season, our measure of the market potential for existing-home sales showed the housing market again broke with traditional seasonal patterns by ending the year strong. In ... Read More ›

Unlike the two-thirds of Americans who already own a home, potential first-time home buyers did not benefit from the surging levels of home equity driven by rapid house price appreciation. Just as in 2020, low mortgage rates increased house-buying power and simultaneously boosted demand amid record low levels of homes for sale, further ... Read More ›

Affordability sank to its lowest level since 2008 in October, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI) swung in favor of reduced affordability relative to one year ago. Higher mortgage rates and record year-over-year nominal house price growth triggered a nearly 20 percent jump in the RHPI (rising RHPI values indicate ... Read More ›

In November 2021, housing market potential decreased modestly month-over-month to a 6.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), according to our Potential Home Sales (PHS) model. Housing market potential in November increased 7.2 percent compared with one year ago and remains significantly higher than the pre-pandemic level. Demand ... Read More ›

At first glance, the outlook for the 2022 housing market is a familiar one – strong millennial demand for homes constrained by an ongoing, historic housing supply shortage. This supply-demand imbalance generated the record house price appreciation seen in 2021 and, given this dynamic shows few signs of changing, we expect house price appreciation ... Read More ›