Key Points: Existing-home sales are hovering just above 4 million annualized sales, far below pre-pandemic levels. Housing contributes to GDP via new construction and ongoing housing services, totaling 16 percent of GDP last quarter. Fewer home sales curbs spending on everything from sofas to remodeling services, acting as a drag on broader ... Read More ›

Key Points: Renting is currently more affordable than owning in most major markets, even after adjusting for equity gains. The decision to rent or buy isn’t just financial – it’s also about flexibility versus stability, and lifestyle needs. Local conditions vary widely, and in some markets, modest appreciation still tips the scales in favor of ... Read More ›

Key Points: The existing-home share of total sales fell to the lowest level since 2005. The price of the median new home is lower than the price of a median existing home. While the new-home market has outperformed the existing-home market, headwinds may slow the momentum. Existing-home sales transactions continue to languish, around the 4 million ... Read More ›

Key Points: There is a strong relationship between the median length of time that people stay in their home, known as tenure, and sales activity. Historically, the median tenure length in the U.S. has been six years, but today it’s reached a historic high of nearly nine years. The drivers behind the rise in tenure length are multi-faceted but ... Read More ›

Key Points: The rate lock-in effect peaked in Q4 2023 with a 3.2 percentage point difference between the average prevailing mortgage rate and the average outstanding mortgage rate. Due to lower mortgage rates and steadily increasing share of people buying homes at higher rates, the rate lock-in effect has loosened, prompting higher for-sale ... Read More ›

Key Points: Recessions don’t always mean falling home sales – the housing market has remained resilient in many past downturns. Lower mortgage rates can offset economic uncertainty – the Federal Reserve often cuts rates in a recession, making homes more affordable. Every recession is different – unlike the Great Recession, most downturns haven’t ... Read More ›