Key Points: The rate lock-in effect peaked in Q4 2023 with a 3.2 percentage point difference between the average prevailing mortgage rate and the average outstanding mortgage rate. Due to lower mortgage rates and steadily increasing share of people buying homes at higher rates, the rate lock-in effect has loosened, prompting higher for-sale ... Read More ›

Key Points: Recessions don’t always mean falling home sales – the housing market has remained resilient in many past downturns. Lower mortgage rates can offset economic uncertainty – the Federal Reserve often cuts rates in a recession, making homes more affordable. Every recession is different – unlike the Great Recession, most downturns haven’t ... Read More ›

Key Points: In 2024, single women overcame affordability challenges and increased their homeownership rate to nearly 52 percent, while the overall homeownership rate declined. Single women are making significant financial sacrifices, such as cutting non-essential spending and taking on second jobs, to save for down payments and purchase homes. ... Read More ›

Key Points: The spring season is crucial for the housing market, existing-home sales increase by an average of approximately 45 percent from the seasonal lows of December through February to the peak months of April through June Despite rising inventory, affordability remains a challenge due to high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. We’re ... Read More ›

Key Points: Existing-home sales are projected to end 2024 higher than one year ago. Housing supply has increased in 34 of the top 50 markets we track on a year-over-year basis. Our analysis suggests a strong and positive relationship between increasing new listings and improving sales. Despite a year marked by elevated interest rates and the ... Read More ›

Key Points: Mortgage rates are expected to remain above 6 percent, but affordability may improve modestly due to positive wage growth and slightly lower rates. Inventory will remain historically low, with a slight increase expected if mortgage rates moderate. However, the mortgage lock-in effect will prevent a return to pre-pandemic inventory ... Read More ›