Return of the Housing Recession
By
Mark Fleming on September 18, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, decreased by 0.2 percent in August, and remains 3.4 percent lower than one year ago. While it seems that the steep decline in sales driven by the rapid rise in mortgage rates is behind ...
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Housing Market Potential Increases, Despite Strengthening Rate Lock-In Effect
By
Mark Fleming on August 21, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, increased by 1 percent in July, but remains nearly 2 percent lower than one year ago. The yearly decline in market potential was the smallest since February 2022. The steep decline in ...
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Have Existing-Home Sales Bottomed Out?
By
Mark Fleming on July 19, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, decreased modestly in June, and remains 2.8 percent lower than one year ago. Mortgage rates have risen substantially since the spring of 2022, and higher rates have a dual impact on sales ...
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Housing Market Potential Increases, But Remains Restricted by Existing Home Supply
By
Mark Fleming on June 21, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, increased modestly in May, but is still down 5.7 percent from a year ago. The primary factor limiting housing market potential is existing homeowners staying put.
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Two Dynamics Locking Existing Homeowners into their Homes
By
Mark Fleming on May 17, 2023
The housing market remains sluggish heading into the spring home-buying season. While mortgage rates have retreated from recent peaks, they remain elevated compared with one year ago. Higher mortgage rates have a dual impact on sales – pricing out buyers who lose purchasing power and keeping some potential sellers rate-locked in. There are plenty ...
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Will there be a Residential Real Estate Credit Crunch?
By
Mark Fleming on April 18, 2023
The housing market has faced its fair share of headwinds leading up to this year’s spring home-buying season. While mortgage rates have retreated from recent highs, they remain elevated compared with one year ago, and house prices, while down from the peak, also remain elevated. All while housing supply remains historically and unseasonably low. ...
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