In October 2019, the housing market exceeded its potential, as actual existing-home sales exceeded market potential by 4.6 percent, or an estimated 239,000 seasonally adjusted annualized sales. Housing market potential decreased relative to last month, but increased 0.6 percent compared with October of last year. Read More ›

Thus far in 2019, the story of the housing market has been a tale of strong housing demand and limited supply. On the demand side, steadily rising house-buying power has fueled greater demand. Falling mortgage rates and rising household income sparked a nearly 12.6 percent increase in house-buying power year to date through September. The impact ... Read More ›

Declining for the sixth consecutive month, the Loan Application Defect Index for purchase transactions fell 2.6 percent in September compared with August. The Defect Index for refinance transactions also fell, declining 4.5 percent compared with the previous month. The overall Defect Index, which includes both purchase and refinance transactions, ... Read More ›

Understanding the dynamics that influence consumer house-buying power, how much home one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, provides a helpful perspective on the housing market. When incomes rise, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates or nominal house prices rise, consumer house-buying power declines. Our ... Read More ›

In September 2019, the housing market performed to its potential, as actual existing-home sales were a marginal 0.04 percent, or an estimated 2,340 seasonally adjusted annualized sales, below market potential. Housing market potential decreased relative to last month, but increased 3.8 percent compared with September of last year. Indeed, in ... Read More ›

Important, but easy to overlook shifts in investment trends may be contributing to our current era of low interest rates. An excess supply of global savings relative to the demand for that money for investments is driving down interest rates, which can be thought of as the price of money. The neutral rate of interest, which is monitored by the ... Read More ›