Housing Market Trends

From the First American Economic Center

The First American Economic Center has you covered with in-depth analysis and expert insights on the latest data and trends in the industry.

Why Higher Mortgage Rates Don't Always Lead to Declining House Prices

By Mark Fleming on June 26, 2023
In April, housing affordability improved relative to one month ago, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), income and mortgage rates boosted house-buying power by 2.3 percent. Median household incomes increased by 0.1 percent compared with March, while mortgage rates dipped by 0.2 percentage points. Nominal house ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Millennials, Walking Around Like They Own the Place

By Ksenia Potapov on June 22, 2023
Amid the roller coaster housing market of the past few years, National Homeownership Month presents an opportunity to examine a fundamental driver of homeownership and housing demand—demographics. In fact, there’s one generation in particular that will remain a driving force of homeownership demand for years to come—the millennials. Read More

Millennials Homeownership

Housing Market Potential Increases, But Remains Restricted by Existing Home Supply

By Mark Fleming on June 21, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, increased modestly in May, but is still down 5.7 percent from a year ago. The primary factor limiting housing market potential is existing homeowners staying put. Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

Seasonal Demand Drives Resurgent House Price Growth and Decline in Affordability

By Mark Fleming on May 31, 2023
In March, housing affordability declined, snapping a four-month streak of increasing affordability. The decline in March occurred as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates, moved higher, decreasing house-buying power by 2.7 percent and dragging affordability down relative to one ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Outlook for First-Time Home Buyer Affordability is Mixed, but Affordable Markets Remain

By Ksenia Potapov on May 30, 2023
National housing affordability has broadly declined compared with one year ago, especially for potential first-time home buyers. The median renter, who can also be considered the median first-time home buyer, could afford 34 percent of the homes for sale nationally in the first quarter of 2023, down from 45 percent a year earlier. The decline is ... Read More

Homeownership First-Time Home Buyer Outlook Report Renter Affordability

Mind the Gap Between Mortgage Rates and the 10-Year Treasury Yield

By Odeta Kushi on May 24, 2023
The popular 30-year, fixed mortgage rate is loosely benchmarked to the 10-year Treasury bond. Since the end of the Great Recession, the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate has on average remained 1.7 percentage points (170 basis points) higher than the 10-year Treasury bond yield. Yet, this spread is not always consistent. It usually widens during ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates