Recent Posts by Mark Fleming

Mark Fleming is the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation and leads First American’s Decision Sciences team.

The Five Cities Where Affordability Declined the Most

By Mark Fleming on November 23, 2020
Affordability declined month over month in September for the second month in a row, even as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income and mortgage rates, swung in favor of increased affordability. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell by 0.05 percentage points and household income increased 0.2 percent ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

What Does the Housing Market’s Historic Pandemic Rebound Mean for 2021?

By Mark Fleming on November 18, 2020
The housing market’s historic rebound since bottoming in the spring has been nothing short of amazing. After falling to a near-decade low in May, existing-home sales hit a 14-year high in September. In October, our measure of market potential for existing-home sales increased 9.0 percent compared with one year ago to a 5.98 million seasonally ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

What a Pandemic-Driven Shift in the Labor Market Could Mean for Housing

By Mark Fleming on November 12, 2020
The October jobs report exceeded consensus expectations for job growth, yet the labor market’s rebound continues to slow. Higher frequency data from weekly jobless claims confirm the slowdown, as the level of new jobless filings is not falling as quickly in recent months. COVID-19 cases are on the rise and there is increasing likelihood of a ... Read More

Housing Homeownership

Has the Affordability Boost From Falling Mortgage Rates Run its Course?

By Mark Fleming on October 27, 2020
Throughout 2020, falling mortgage rates have been the strongest influence on housing affordability trends, even helping fuel the housing market’s impressive recovery and resilience to the continuing economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Mortgage rates began declining in January 2020 and even dropped below 3 percent for the first time ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Why Housing Market Potential Remains at 13-Year High Point

By Mark Fleming on October 16, 2020
The housing market’s impressive “V-shaped” recovery has thus far shown significant resilience to the economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic. Demographically driven millennial demand has continued unabated, low rates have fueled house-buying power, and historically low inventory has increased competition, leading to rising prices. Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

How Can Housing Affordability Improve During Periods of Economic Decline When House Prices Rise

By Mark Fleming on September 28, 2020
Affordability improved in July as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income and mortgage rates, swung in favor of increased affordability, outpacing the rise in nominal house price appreciation. The average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate fell by 0.75 percentage points and household income increased 5.5 ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability