Recent Posts by Mark Fleming
Mark Fleming is the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation and leads First American’s Decision Sciences team.
House Prices Are Hot, But Is Housing Overvalued?
By
Mark Fleming on February 23, 2021
Punxsutawney Phil may have signaled six more weeks of winter, but in housing, it looks like spring (home buying) has already arrived. Typically, the housing market winds down a bit in the winter, but America’s housing market is booming, even in the colder months. The First American Data & Analytics nominal house price index indicates ...
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Why the Housing Market Can Thrive if a New Rising-Rate Era Begins
By
Mark Fleming on January 26, 2021
Even though nominal house prices continued to surge, affordability improved in November as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income and mortgage rates, swung in favor of increased affordability. Real house prices declined by 6.2 percent relative to one year ago, thanks to the benefit of increased buying ...
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Why Housing Market Potential May Build on Momentum from Historic 2020
By
Mark Fleming on January 22, 2021
In the final month of 2020, the market potential for existing-home sales reached its highest point since 2007, rising to a 6.18 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of sales. While the winter months are traditionally real estate’s slow season, the housing market had one more surprise for us in 2020 as our measure of the market ...
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Will the Super-Sellers' Market Continue to Impact Affordability in 2021?
By
Mark Fleming on December 28, 2020
The housing market prior to the pandemic could have been characterized as a sellers’ market, with a shortage of supply relative to demand. With the current supply of homes for sale even tighter relative to demand, it can only be characterized as a super-sellers’ market today. The pandemic has intensified a sense of home as refuge and falling ...
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What Will Drive Housing Market Potential in 2021?
By
Mark Fleming on December 21, 2020
The housing market continues to impress, even as it enters the colder months, which is traditionally real estate’s slow season. After falling to a near-decade low in May due to pandemic-driven pressures, existing-home sales hit a 14-year high in October. In November, our measure of the market potential for existing-home sales increased 10 percent, ...
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Why the Big Short in Housing Supply Will Remain in 2021
By
Mark Fleming on December 3, 2020
As the housing market has recovered from the initial impacts of the pandemic, nominal house price appreciation has soared, but affordability actually improved until recently due to the house-buying power benefit from historically low mortgage rates. However, for the second month in a row, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) increased, indicating ...
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Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability Housing supply