Housing market potential strengthened again last month, according to our Potential Home Sales Model, despite significant supply headwinds. In May, housing market potential increased 0.8 percent compared with April, and is now nearly 23 percent higher than the pandemic-driven decline last May. Relative to two years ago, housing market potential is ... Read More ›

One of the most closely watched indicators of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), jumped 4.2 percent year over year this April. This is a faster pace than most economists anticipated, and was a result of base effects, combined with the numerous supply chain bottlenecks driving up prices as the economy reopens. One of the most important ... Read More ›

Housing affordability on a year-over-year basis declined in March for the first time since January 2019, ending a more than two-year streak of rising affordability. The long run of increasing affordability snapped, even as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income and mortgage rates, swung in favor of ... Read More ›

Housing market potential regained strength in the month of April, according to our Potential Home Sales Model. In April, housing market potential increased 1.3 percent compared with March, and is now nearly 30 percent higher than the pandemic-driven collapse last April. Relative to two years ago, housing market potential is 16.7 percent higher and ... Read More ›

More than a year into the pandemic, the housing market continues to run hot. The supply and demand imbalance brewing before the pandemic boiled over in the past year, resulting in record low levels of housing inventory and, consequently, the fastest pace of annual house price appreciation since 2005. With the arrival of the spring home-buying ... Read More ›

The three components of the Real House Price Index (RHPI) are household income, mortgage rates and a nominal house price index. The RHPI adjusts nominal house prices according to changes in income and interest rates, which together make up consumer house-buying power. When incomes rise, house-buying power rises as well. However, when mortgage ... Read More ›