Key Points: National sales remain weak despite rising inventory, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between active listings and new listings. Across the top 75 markets, sales are strongly correlated with the flow of new listings. The outlook for new listings growth—and thus sales—will hinge on the tension between the mortgage rate ... Read More ›

Key Points: Existing-home sales are hovering just above 4 million annualized sales, far below pre-pandemic levels. Housing contributes to GDP via new construction and ongoing housing services, totaling 16 percent of GDP last quarter. Fewer home sales curbs spending on everything from sofas to remodeling services, acting as a drag on broader ... Read More ›

Key Points: The existing-home share of total sales fell to the lowest level since 2005. The price of the median new home is lower than the price of a median existing home. While the new-home market has outperformed the existing-home market, headwinds may slow the momentum. Existing-home sales transactions continue to languish, around the 4 million ... Read More ›

Key Points: There is a strong relationship between the median length of time that people stay in their home, known as tenure, and sales activity. Historically, the median tenure length in the U.S. has been six years, but today it’s reached a historic high of nearly nine years. The drivers behind the rise in tenure length are multi-faceted but ... Read More ›

Key Points: The rate lock-in effect peaked in Q4 2023 with a 3.2 percentage point difference between the average prevailing mortgage rate and the average outstanding mortgage rate. Due to lower mortgage rates and steadily increasing share of people buying homes at higher rates, the rate lock-in effect has loosened, prompting higher for-sale ... Read More ›

Key Points: Comparing the pace of home sales today to past decades without considering the growing number of households is misleading. Existing-home sales as a percentage of total households have declined to early 1990s levels, just above 3 percent, and well below the long-run average of 4.1 percent. The number of new-home sales as a percentage of ... Read More ›