Where New Listings Grow, Sales Flow
By
Odeta Kushi on August 20, 2025
Key Points: National sales remain weak despite rising inventory, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between active listings and new listings. Across the top 75 markets, sales are strongly correlated with the flow of new listings. The outlook for new listings growth—and thus sales—will hinge on the tension between the mortgage rate ...
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What Does the Lingering Slump in Existing-Home Sales Mean for the Broader Economy?
By
Odeta Kushi on July 18, 2025
Key Points: Existing-home sales are hovering just above 4 million annualized sales, far below pre-pandemic levels. Housing contributes to GDP via new construction and ongoing housing services, totaling 16 percent of GDP last quarter. Fewer home sales curbs spending on everything from sofas to remodeling services, acting as a drag on broader ...
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Incentives, Inventory, and the Tale of Two Housing Markets
By
Odeta Kushi on June 20, 2025
Key Points: The existing-home share of total sales fell to the lowest level since 2005. The price of the median new home is lower than the price of a median existing home. While the new-home market has outperformed the existing-home market, headwinds may slow the momentum. Existing-home sales transactions continue to languish, around the 4 million ...
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Peak Homebody Era is Pummeling the Housing Market
By
Odeta Kushi on May 23, 2025
Key Points: There is a strong relationship between the median length of time that people stay in their home, known as tenure, and sales activity. Historically, the median tenure length in the U.S. has been six years, but today it’s reached a historic high of nearly nine years. The drivers behind the rise in tenure length are multi-faceted but ...
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The Primary Force Holding Back the Housing Market Loosens
By
Odeta Kushi on April 18, 2025
Key Points: The rate lock-in effect peaked in Q4 2023 with a 3.2 percentage point difference between the average prevailing mortgage rate and the average outstanding mortgage rate. Due to lower mortgage rates and steadily increasing share of people buying homes at higher rates, the rate lock-in effect has loosened, prompting higher for-sale ...
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Today’s Pace of Home Sales is Weaker Than Many Realize
By
Mark Fleming on April 3, 2025
Key Points: Comparing the pace of home sales today to past decades without considering the growing number of households is misleading. Existing-home sales as a percentage of total households have declined to early 1990s levels, just above 3 percent, and well below the long-run average of 4.1 percent. The number of new-home sales as a percentage of ...
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