How Does a Strong Economy Slow the Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on December 21, 2018
For the second consecutive month, all three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income, mortgage rates, and the unadjusted house price index, increased compared with a year ago. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage and the unadjusted house price index increased by 0.9 percentage points and 7.3 percent respectively. Even though ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

What Does an Inverted Yield Curve Mean for the Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on December 12, 2018
Last week, the yield curve inverted, meaning the yield on short-run Treasury bonds exceeded the yield on long-run Treasury bonds, which prompted increased speculation that a recession may be on the horizon. The speculation is rooted in the historical correlation between yield curve inversions and recessions, which have occasionally followed one to ... Read More

Housing Affordability

Why is Real House Price Appreciation Accelerating?

By Mark Fleming on November 26, 2018
In September, all three of the key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income, mortgage rates, and an unadjusted house price index, increased compared with a year ago. When household income rises, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates and house prices increase, consumer house-buying power decreases. The ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Interview on CNBC: Discussing the New Normal for the Housing Market

By FirstAm Editor on November 23, 2018
First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming was interviewed on CNBC earlier this week and discussed the current dynamics at play in the housing market where rising mortgage rates have impacted both supply and demand. Read More

Housing In The News Interest Rates Millennials Affordability

Why the Housing Market Can Thrive at 5 Percent Mortgage Rates

By Mark Fleming on November 12, 2018
Last week, the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate hit a seven-and-a-half-year high of 4.86 percent. Most experts believe mortgage rates will continue to rise, reaching 5 percent in 2019. Read More

Interest Rates Federal Reserve Affordability

How Wage Growth Reduced the Sting of Rising Rates on Affordability

By Mark Fleming on October 29, 2018
Understanding the dynamics that influence consumer house-buying power, how much home one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, provides helpful perspective on the housing market. When incomes rise, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates or nominal house prices rise, consumer house-buying power declines. Our ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability