Later this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will convene and likely announce a rate cut, according to experts. The first Fed rate cut since December 2008 will trigger industry and media speculation about mortgage rates declining further. While changes to the federal funds rate don't directly influence mortgage rates, a rate cut will ... Read More ›

The housing market underperformed its potential in June 2019, as actual existing-home sales were 1.5 percent below the market’s potential. The market potential for existing-home sales increased 1.1 percent compared with May, according to our Potential Home Sales model. Read More ›

Ten years after the Great Recession, homeownership remains one of the main tenets of the American Dream. Amid the recovery from the housing crisis, the homeownership rate hit a generational low of 63 percent in 2016, but it has been steadily rising since. What’s behind the steady rise since the 2016 low point? The explanation lies in the shifts in ... Read More ›

Last month, we predicted that if mortgage rates continued to fall, it may help ease the pressure on fraud risk. Indeed, the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell to its lowest level since January 2018, and fraud risk has fallen alongside it. The Loan Application Defect Index for purchase transactions declined 6.3 percent in May compared with April, ... Read More ›

Two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income and mortgage rates, swung in favor of increased affordability in April. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell by 0.33 percentage points and household income increased 2.7 percent compared to April 2018. When household income rises, consumer house-buying power ... Read More ›

The housing market outperformed its potential in May 2019. Actual existing-home sales are 0.2 percent above the market’s current potential, according to our Potential Home Sales model. Even as mortgage rates have decreased, and household income has increased, the market is underperforming compared to it’s potential from a year ago. What are the ... Read More ›