Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

1990s Nostalgia Hits the Housing Market, With One Key Difference

By Ksenia Potapov on August 29, 2023
The many twists and turns of the housing market over the last few years have made it difficult to contextualize current housing market conditions, especially as recency bias anchors us to the housing market of 2020 and 2021, which was anything but normal. Mortgage rates hit historic lows during these years yet have since increased to the highest ... Read More›

Housing Housing supply

Why Free-and-Clear Homeowners Hold the Key to Unlocking More Housing Supply

By Odeta Kushi on February 17, 2023
As mortgage rates rose rapidly last year, the golden handcuffs of low mortgage rates, otherwise known as the rate lock-in effect, was frequently cited as a primary culprit for the ongoing housing supply shortage. And, rightfully so, as according to third-quarter 2022 Federal Housing Finance Agency data, 84 percent of all outstanding mortgages have ... Read More›

Housing supply

Will Housing Market Seasonality Return to Normal?

By Odeta Kushi on September 17, 2021
September is commonly associated with the beginning of the school year, but it also signals the end of the peak home buying season. The tapering of the housing market in September is part of its normal annual cycle, which follows the same general pattern of peaks and troughs every year, with one big exception. In 2020, the pandemic was the ... Read More›

Housing Housing supply

Has the Great Housing Supply Crash Bottomed Out?

By Mark Fleming on May 19, 2021
More than a year into the pandemic, the housing market continues to run hot. The supply and demand imbalance brewing before the pandemic boiled over in the past year, resulting in record low levels of housing inventory and, consequently, the fastest pace of annual house price appreciation since 2005. With the arrival of the spring home-buying ... Read More›

Housing Housing supply

Why the Big Short in Housing Supply Will Remain in 2021

By Mark Fleming on December 3, 2020
As the housing market has recovered from the initial impacts of the pandemic, nominal house price appreciation has soared, but affordability actually improved until recently due to the house-buying power benefit from historically low mortgage rates. However, for the second month in a row, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) increased, indicating ... Read More›

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability Housing supply

House Price Appreciation Poised to Accelerate as Pandemic Intensifies Housing Supply Shortage

By Odeta Kushi on June 2, 2020
In April, pandemic-related pressure drove the supply of homes for sale to its lowest April supply level ever. Even in the years prior to the pandemic, the lack of housing supply for sale was a significant headwind to the housing market. A major reason for the lack of homes for sale is increasing tenure – the length of time a homeowner lives in ... Read More›

Housing tenure Housing supply