The final Potential Home Sales Model report of 2021 revealed that market potential ended the year on a strong note. While the winter months are traditionally real estate’s slow season, our measure of the market potential for existing-home sales showed the housing market again broke with traditional seasonal patterns by ending the year strong. In ... Read More ›

Affordability sank to its lowest level since 2008 in October, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI) swung in favor of reduced affordability relative to one year ago. Higher mortgage rates and record year-over-year nominal house price growth triggered a nearly 20 percent jump in the RHPI (rising RHPI values indicate ... Read More ›

In November 2021, housing market potential decreased modestly month-over-month to a 6.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), according to our Potential Home Sales (PHS) model. Housing market potential in November increased 7.2 percent compared with one year ago and remains significantly higher than the pre-pandemic level. Demand ... Read More ›

According to the Real House Price Index (RHPI), which measures housing affordability in the context of changes in consumer house-buying power, affordability in September declined to its lowest level since 2008. Two of the three components of consumer house-buying power swung toward declining affordability. Record nominal house price growth and ... Read More ›

In September 2021, existing-home sales increased to a 6.29 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Prior to the pandemic, the housing market had not reached this sales pace since 2006. We may see another strong month in October, as housing market potential increased 10.3 percent compared with one year ago to 6.27 million (SAAR), ... Read More ›

In the month of October, the average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased to its highest level since March of this year – 3.07 percent. For context, the historical average of the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate dating back half a century is 7.8 percent. In the history of recorded data on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, it has never been as low as ... Read More ›