Where are Mortgage Rates Headed Through the End of 2023?

By Mark Fleming on August 28, 2023
Two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates, dragged affordability lower in June. The 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased by 0.3 percentage points and nominal house prices accelerated by 0.8 percent compared with May. While household income increased by 0.4 percent, it was not ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Housing Market Potential Increases, Despite Strengthening Rate Lock-In Effect

By Mark Fleming on August 21, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, increased by 1 percent in July, but remains nearly 2 percent lower than one year ago. The yearly decline in market potential was the smallest since February 2022. The steep decline in ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Does Resurgent House Price Growth Signal a Bottom in the Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on July 31, 2023
In May, housing affordability fell relative to one month ago, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates reduced house-buying power by 0.7 percent. Nominal house price growth ticked up 0.6 percent compared with one month ago, while the average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Have Existing-Home Sales Bottomed Out?

By Mark Fleming on July 19, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, decreased modestly in June, and remains 2.8 percent lower than one year ago. Mortgage rates have risen substantially since the spring of 2022, and higher rates have a dual impact on sales ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Why Higher Mortgage Rates Don't Always Lead to Declining House Prices

By Mark Fleming on June 26, 2023
In April, housing affordability improved relative to one month ago, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), income and mortgage rates boosted house-buying power by 2.3 percent. Median household incomes increased by 0.1 percent compared with March, while mortgage rates dipped by 0.2 percentage points. Nominal house ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Housing Market Potential Increases, But Remains Restricted by Existing Home Supply

By Mark Fleming on June 21, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, increased modestly in May, but is still down 5.7 percent from a year ago. The primary factor limiting housing market potential is existing homeowners staying put. Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure