Where are Mortgage Rates Headed Through the End of 2023?
By
Mark Fleming on August 28, 2023
Two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates, dragged affordability lower in June. The 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased by 0.3 percentage points and nominal house prices accelerated by 0.8 percent compared with May. While household income increased by 0.4 percent, it was not ...
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Housing Market Potential Increases, Despite Strengthening Rate Lock-In Effect
By
Mark Fleming on August 21, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, increased by 1 percent in July, but remains nearly 2 percent lower than one year ago. The yearly decline in market potential was the smallest since February 2022. The steep decline in ...
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The REconomy Podcast™: Why U.S. Homeowners Have a Big Advantage in a Rising Mortgage Rate Environment
By
FirstAm Editor on August 17, 2023
In this episode of The REconomy Podcast™ from First American, Chief Economist Mark Fleming and Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi examine how mortgage loan products are structured in other countries and compare them to the prevailing mortgage loan product in the U.S. – the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage.
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The REconomy Podcast™: What is a Housing Recession and is the U.S. in One Now? (Part 2)
By
FirstAm Editor on August 3, 2023
In this episode of The REconomy Podcast™ from First American, Chief Economist Mark Fleming and Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi share their new housing recession model that provides a data-driven definition of a housing recession, look back at the history of housing recessions, and discuss whether or not we’re in a housing recession today.
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Does Resurgent House Price Growth Signal a Bottom in the Housing Market?
By
Mark Fleming on July 31, 2023
In May, housing affordability fell relative to one month ago, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates reduced house-buying power by 0.7 percent. Nominal house price growth ticked up 0.6 percent compared with one month ago, while the average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased ...
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Have Existing-Home Sales Bottomed Out?
By
Mark Fleming on July 19, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, decreased modestly in June, and remains 2.8 percent lower than one year ago. Mortgage rates have risen substantially since the spring of 2022, and higher rates have a dual impact on sales ...
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