Key Points: Rising inventory and affordability challenges are cooling price appreciation nationally. House prices have dipped below their peaks in 47 of the top 50 markets. Despite price declines, significant equity buffers remain for those that purchased over the boom period. In February 2025, home buyers received some welcome news as mortgage ...
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Key Points: The rate lock-in effect peaked in Q4 2023 with a 3.2 percentage point difference between the average prevailing mortgage rate and the average outstanding mortgage rate. Due to lower mortgage rates and steadily increasing share of people buying homes at higher rates, the rate lock-in effect has loosened, prompting higher for-sale ...
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Key Points: Comparing the pace of home sales today to past decades without considering the growing number of households is misleading. Existing-home sales as a percentage of total households have declined to early 1990s levels, just above 3 percent, and well below the long-run average of 4.1 percent. The number of new-home sales as a percentage of ...
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Key Points: Affordability started the year poorly, but preliminary February data shows some improvement due to lower mortgage rates, slower price appreciation, and rising incomes. Price growth, a key driver of affordability trends, is a function of supply and demand dynamics in the housing market, which can be measured in months' supply. Months' ...
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Key Points: Recessions don’t always mean falling home sales – the housing market has remained resilient in many past downturns. Lower mortgage rates can offset economic uncertainty – the Federal Reserve often cuts rates in a recession, making homes more affordable. Every recession is different – unlike the Great Recession, most downturns haven’t ...
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Key Points: Increased residential construction activity, especially in the South, is improving affordability in certain markets. Housing supply has surged in the South, with over half of the 1.5 million building permits issued in 2024 located the region. Our analysis shows a strong correlation between new-home construction and home prices, with ...
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