When Boomers and Millennials Collide: Tectonic Shifts in Demographics are Coming

By Ksenia Potapov on October 6, 2023
Demographic trends are a fundamental driver of housing demand and supply and analyzing them can help us anticipate how many people will need housing, as well as roughly when, where and what kind of housing. During the pandemic, the peak of millennial demand for homeownership coincided with record-low mortgage rates and a shortage of homes for ... Read More

Housing Millennials Baby Boomers Homeownership

Affordability Sinks to Lowest Point in Over Three Decades

By Mark Fleming on September 25, 2023
In July 2023, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) jumped up by nearly 17 percent on an annual basis, bringing housing affordability to the lowest point in over three decades. Two factors drove the sharp annual decline in affordability – a 4 percent annual increase in nominal house prices and a 1.4 percentage point increase in the 30-year, fixed ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Return of the Housing Recession

By Mark Fleming on September 18, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, decreased by 0.2 percent in August, and remains 3.4 percent lower than one year ago. While it seems that the steep decline in sales driven by the rapid rise in mortgage rates is behind ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Will the Mortgage Rate Spread Narrow or Not? That is the Question

By Odeta Kushi on September 12, 2023
In August, the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate hit the highest level since the early 2000s. Higher mortgage rates have a dual impact on the housing market – reducing affordability for potential buyers and strengthening the rate lock-in effect for sellers. The outlook for the U.S. housing market is therefore heavily dependent on the path of mortgage ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates

Why Buy a Home Now if it’s Likely to Cost More in the Future?

By Ksenia Potapov on September 7, 2023
The millennial generation, those born between 1981 and 1996, have recently dominated the demand side of the housing market. However, Generation Z, those born between 1997 and 2012, is on the cusp of aging into their prime home-buying years. While potential first-time home buyers, mostly millennials and older Gen Zers, jumped on the historically ... Read More

Homeownership Renter Affordability

1990s Nostalgia Hits the Housing Market, With One Key Difference

By Ksenia Potapov on August 29, 2023
The many twists and turns of the housing market over the last few years have made it difficult to contextualize current housing market conditions, especially as recency bias anchors us to the housing market of 2020 and 2021, which was anything but normal. Mortgage rates hit historic lows during these years yet have since increased to the highest ... Read More

Housing Housing supply