Did Falling Mortgage Rates Prevent a Housing Recession?

By Odeta Kushi on September 12, 2024
Key Points: In May and June, four of the eight indicators in our model flashed housing recession. While July data is still trickling in, it’s looking like we may narrowly avoid a housing recession. The relationship between housing and economic recessions is complicated and, contrary to what many believe, housing does not always lead economic ... Read More

Affordable housing Housing Mortgage Rates

Affordability Improves for Second Straight Month, but Home Buyers Shrug

By Mark Fleming on August 26, 2024
Key Points: In July, affordability improved annually in 12 markets for the first time since 2021. Despite the improvement in affordability, the only 17 percent of consumers indicated that it’s a good time to buy a home, down from 19 percent in June, according to the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). Affordability nationally remains ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Mortgage Rate Relief Brings Much-Needed Optimism to the Housing Market

By Odeta Kushi on August 20, 2024
Housing market sales activity in 2024 has closely followed the path of mortgage rates, and we expect that to remain true with July’s existing-home sales data that will publish on July 22. Each month, we use our Existing-Home Sales Outlook Report to ‘nowcast’ existing-home sales based on the historical relationship between sales, demographic ... Read More

Housing Mortgage Rates Existing-Home Sales

House Price Appreciation Flips the Rent-Versus-Own Dynamic in Favor of Owning in 27 markets

By Odeta Kushi on August 16, 2024
Since real estate is local, whether it makes more financial sense to continue renting or to buy depends on where one lives. However, typical rent-versus-own calculations fail to include the main financial benefit of owning, which is the accumulation of equity. While rare, house price declines can make it more costly to own a home, but after ... Read More

Affordable housing Housing Renter Affordability

Housing Supply Surge Improves Affordability in Some Markets

By Mark Fleming on July 29, 2024
Nationally, affordability improved modestly on a monthly basis in June, driven by slightly lower mortgage rates and positive income growth. However, on an annual basis, affordability nationally remains approximately 4 percent lower than one year ago. Two factors drove the annualized drop in affordability – a 5.6 percent annual increase in nominal ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

The Tale of Two Markets Continues…For Now

By Odeta Kushi on July 19, 2024
Even with more existing-home inventory on the market than last year, today’s potential home buyers face one of the least affordable markets in history due to record-high and still-rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates. Each month, we use our Existing-Home Sales Outlook Report to ‘nowcast’ existing-home sales based on the historical ... Read More

Housing Mortgage Rates Existing-Home Sales