Recent Posts by Mark Fleming

Mark Fleming is the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation and leads First American’s Decision Sciences team.

Why Higher Mortgage Rates Don't Always Lead to Declining House Prices

By Mark Fleming on June 26, 2023
In April, housing affordability improved relative to one month ago, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), income and mortgage rates boosted house-buying power by 2.3 percent. Median household incomes increased by 0.1 percent compared with March, while mortgage rates dipped by 0.2 percentage points. Nominal house ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Housing Market Potential Increases, But Remains Restricted by Existing Home Supply

By Mark Fleming on June 21, 2023
Our Potential Home Sales Model, which measures what a healthy market for home sales should be based on the economic, demographic and housing market environments, increased modestly in May, but is still down 5.7 percent from a year ago. The primary factor limiting housing market potential is existing homeowners staying put. Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

Seasonal Demand Drives Resurgent House Price Growth and Decline in Affordability

By Mark Fleming on May 31, 2023
In March, housing affordability declined, snapping a four-month streak of increasing affordability. The decline in March occurred as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates, moved higher, decreasing house-buying power by 2.7 percent and dragging affordability down relative to one ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Two Dynamics Locking Existing Homeowners into their Homes

By Mark Fleming on May 17, 2023
The housing market remains sluggish heading into the spring home-buying season. While mortgage rates have retreated from recent peaks, they remain elevated compared with one year ago. Higher mortgage rates have a dual impact on sales – pricing out buyers who lose purchasing power and keeping some potential sellers rate-locked in. There are plenty ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

Why Declining House Prices and Softening Labor Market Will Not Trigger a Foreclosure Tsunami

By Mark Fleming on April 21, 2023
Affordability has now improved for four straight months, yet remains down 32 percent since February 2022, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). Recently falling mortgage rates have overpowered the affordability-dampening effects of higher nominal house prices. Nominal house price appreciation has slowed dramatically in response to ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Will there be a Residential Real Estate Credit Crunch?

By Mark Fleming on April 18, 2023
The housing market has faced its fair share of headwinds leading up to this year’s spring home-buying season. While mortgage rates have retreated from recent highs, they remain elevated compared with one year ago, and house prices, while down from the peak, also remain elevated. All while housing supply remains historically and unseasonably low. ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure