Recent Posts by Mark Fleming

Mark Fleming is the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation and leads First American’s Decision Sciences team.

Why Renter House-Buying Power is the Key to Understanding Housing Affordability

By Mark Fleming on August 6, 2018
With unadjusted house prices recently eclipsing their 2006 housing boom peak, housing affordability is a concern in the industry and for potential home buyers. Existing home owners, by definition, can afford one so, when we are speaking about housing affordability, it is really a conversation about first-time home buyers. Read More

Housing First-Time Homebuyer Affordability Homeownership

Will Wage Growth Signal Relief for Potential Home Buyers?

By Mark Fleming on August 3, 2018
Home buyers should feel a bit more confident today after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment situation report for July stated that the unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent, and hourly wages continue to increase. House price appreciation has exceeded wage growth for 6 years, so ongoing increases in wage growth could translate into ... Read More

Housing Wage Growth

How Millennial Home Buying Expectations Unintentionally Reduced Loan Application Defect Risk

By Mark Fleming on July 31, 2018
As the mortgage market has continued its transition away from refinances to a predominantly purchase-oriented loan market, the Loan Application Defect Index for purchase transactions has continued to decline, dropping 3.6 percent in the last month and 12.1 percent in the last year. This officially marks a six-month long decline in defect, fraud ... Read More

Fraud Millennials Loan Application Defect Index

The Top Five Cities for Consumer House-Buying Power

By Mark Fleming on July 30, 2018
The three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI) are household income levels, the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate, and the unadjusted house price index. Changes to household income levels and the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate are considered together as consumer house-buying power. When household income rises and/or the mortgage rate falls, ... Read More

Real House Price Index Affordability

Why are Existing Homeowners Rate Locked and Imprisoned?

By Mark Fleming on July 20, 2018
In June, the housing market continued to underperform its potential. Actual existing home sales are 4.2 percent below the market potential for home sales, according to our Potential Home Sales model, which estimates the expected level of existing-home sales based on market fundamentals. The market for existing-home sales is underperforming its ... Read More

Are Home Builders Closing the Gap Between Housing Supply and Demand?

By Mark Fleming on July 19, 2018
Yesterday’s Census Bureau report on housing construction bodes well for home buyers, as the pace of housing completions increased 2.2 percent over last year. The continued year-over-year growth in completions means more homes on the market in the short-term, offering some immediate relief in alleviating housing supply shortages. Read More

Housing Homeownership Progress Index Housing Starts