Will Higher Mortgage Rates Bring Normalcy to the Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on May 18, 2022
The market potential for existing-home sales in April declined 3 percent compared with last month, falling to 5.74 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Housing market potential is down 8.1 percent, compared with the roaring housing market in April 2021, but today’s housing market is still very 2019, which was the housing ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

Why the 2022 Housing Market is Very 2019

By Mark Fleming on April 19, 2022
Since the start of the global pandemic in March 2020, we have weathered unprecedented pandemic-induced changes and the housing market has been no exception. The typically hot spring home-buying season in 2020 was initially frozen by the pandemic’s impacts and shelter-in-place orders. As potential home buyers emerged from the stay-at-home orders, ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

What is Driving Housing Market Potential as the Spring Home-Buying Season Begins?

By Mark Fleming on March 18, 2022
Following nearly two years of a soaring housing market, the 2022 spring home-buying season will be watched closely for signs that more balance may be returning to the housing market. Our Potential Home Sales Model estimates the expected level of existing-home sales based on market fundamentals, providing a helpful tool to assess the state of the ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

Opposing Supply-Demand Forces Hold Key to Housing Market Potential

By Mark Fleming on February 22, 2022
While still 4 percent higher than one year ago, the market potential for existing-home sales declined to its lowest level since June 2021, according to the first Potential Home Sales Model report of 2022. Demand for homes will remain strong in 2022, but declining affordability and lack of supply may limit market potential. Potential home buyers ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

Millennials Remain Driving Force in Housing Market Potential

By Mark Fleming on January 19, 2022
The final Potential Home Sales Model report of 2021 revealed that market potential ended the year on a strong note. While the winter months are traditionally real estate’s slow season, our measure of the market potential for existing-home sales showed the housing market again broke with traditional seasonal patterns by ending the year strong. In ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure

Will Rising Mortgage Rates Slow Sales?

By Mark Fleming on December 22, 2021
In November 2021, housing market potential decreased modestly month-over-month to a 6.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), according to our Potential Home Sales (PHS) model. Housing market potential in November increased 7.2 percent compared with one year ago and remains significantly higher than the pre-pandemic level. Demand ... Read More

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales Tenure