In November 2019, the housing market outperformed its potential, as actual existing-home sales exceeded market potential by 2.8 percent, or an estimated 146,340 seasonally adjusted annualized sales. Housing market potential increased 1.4 percent relative to last month and 3.9 percent compared with November of last year, an increase of 196,480 ... Read More ›

Based on our analysis, if mortgage rates continue to fall, the pressure on fraud risk may weaken. This has played out throughout most of 2019, as the 30-year, fixed mortgage rate has been falling since December 2018, and overall fraud risk alongside it. Fraud risk began declining in March 2019 and reached a historical low in October. The Loan ... Read More ›

Two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), household income and mortgage rates, modestly swung in favor of increased affordability in September, yet affordability declined month over month. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage fell by 0.01 percentage points and household income increased 0.03 percent compared with August 2019. ... Read More ›

In October 2019, the housing market exceeded its potential, as actual existing-home sales exceeded market potential by 4.6 percent, or an estimated 239,000 seasonally adjusted annualized sales. Housing market potential decreased relative to last month, but increased 0.6 percent compared with October of last year. Read More ›

Declining for the sixth consecutive month, the Loan Application Defect Index for purchase transactions fell 2.6 percent in September compared with August. The Defect Index for refinance transactions also fell, declining 4.5 percent compared with the previous month. The overall Defect Index, which includes both purchase and refinance transactions, ... Read More ›

Understanding the dynamics that influence consumer house-buying power, how much home one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, provides a helpful perspective on the housing market. When incomes rise, consumer house-buying power increases. When mortgage rates or nominal house prices rise, consumer house-buying power declines. Our ... Read More ›