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Economic Center Blog

How Will Hurricanes Harvey And Irma Impact Housing Market Potential?

By Mark Fleming on September 19, 2017

First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model examines August 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on how the real estate market is performing versus its potential.

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Topics: Interest Rates, Homeownership, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates

The Struggle Is Real For First-Time Homebuyers

By Mark Fleming on August 23, 2017

First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model examines July 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on how the real estate market is performing versus its potential.

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Topics: Interest Rates, Homeownership, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates

The Persistent Force Behind Lower Affordability

By Mark Fleming on July 20, 2017

First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model examines June 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on how the real estate market is performing versus its potential.

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Topics: Existing Home Sales, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates

When Does A Home Become A Prison?

By Mark Fleming on July 19, 2017

The housing market is suffering from a supply shortage, not a demand dilemma. As Millennial first-time homebuyer demand continues to increase, the inventory of homes for sale tightens. At the same time, prices are increasing, so why aren’t there more homeowners selling their homes?

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Topics: insider, mortgage rates

Rising Mortgage Rates Dampen Market Potential In December

By Mark Fleming on January 23, 2017

First American's proprietary Potential Home Sales model examines December 2016 data and includes analysis from Chief Economist Mark Fleming on the impact of rising rates amid growing demand and limited inventory.

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Topics: Existing Home Sales, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates

Rising Mortgage Rates Expected To Cool Market Potential In 2017

By FirstAm Editor on December 19, 2016

First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming shares his proprietary Potential Home Sales model for November, with analysis of the housing market's overall health. 

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Topics: Homeownership, Existing Home Sales, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates

Lack Of Affordable Inventory Keeps Market Below Potential

By Mark Fleming on November 21, 2016

October 2016 Potential Home Sales

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Topics: Homeownership, Existing Home Sales, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates

Buy, Buy Millennials!

By Mark Fleming on November 7, 2016

A common narrative over the last several years is that Millennials are breaking with the habits of their parents when it comes to home buying. Millennials rent longer, live with their parents, and are burdened with student loan debt. In short, it would seem that for a variety of reasons they aren’t as interested in homeownership as their predecessors. We’ve examined this issue in previous posts, and found that, contrary to conventional wisdom, Millennials continue to strive for homeownership. Advancing their education has been a top priority for Millennials, and they stand to benefit from the higher incomes that accompany higher education levels. As the first wave of Millennials ages into homeownership, the real question becomes, how healthy is the housing market they are entering?

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Topics: millennials, Real House Price Index, mortgage rates

Crowd-Sourced Title Agent Projections More Accurate Than Many Economic Forecasts

By Mark Fleming on October 21, 2016

It has been a full year since our proprietary Real Estate Sentiment Index (RESI) first shared title agents’ predictions for price growth and other key metrics across property types for the year ahead. So, with a full year of data, the time is right to ask the question: how accurate is the wisdom of the crowd? In a post late last year, we discussed that the collective wisdom of the crowd, such as projections reported in the RESI, is often an accurate forecast – sometimes more accurate than the models economists build.

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Topics: Real Estate Sentiment Index, affordability, mortgage rates

Market Potential Improves On The Back Of Gains In Income

By Mark Fleming on September 20, 2016

 

For the month of August, First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model showed that the market for existing-home sales is underperforming its potential by 5.6 percent or an estimated 323,000 seasonally adjusted, annualized rate (SAAR) of sales, an improvement relative to last month’s revised performance gap of -5.7 percent or 328,000 (SAAR) sales. The Potential Home Sales model provides a measure of what a healthy market level of home sales should be based on Chief Economist Mark Fleming’s analysis of current economic and demographic factors and the dynamics of the housing market environment. In August, the market potential for existing-home sales grew by 1.08 percent compared to July, an increase of 62,000 (SAAR) sales, and increased by 5.9 percent compared to a year ago.

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Topics: Homeownership, Existing Home Sales, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates