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Economic Center Blog

The Struggle Is Real For First-Time Homebuyers

By Mark Fleming on August 23, 2017

First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model examines July 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on how the real estate market is performing versus its potential.

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Topics: Interest Rates, Homeownership, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates

What Are The Prospects For Future Homeownership Demand?

By Mark Fleming on August 17, 2017

We’ve posted the annual First American Homeownership Progress Index (HPRI), which measures how a variety of lifestyle, societal and economic factors influence homeownership rates over time at national, state and market levels. The HPRI declined 0.4 percent year-over-year, and is down 6 percent from the pre-recession peak. Potential homeownership demand is at the same level it was in 1990.

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Topics: millennials, Homeownership Progress Index, HPRI

Streak Of Consecutive Months With Rising Loan Application Defect Risk Reaches Seven

By FirstAm Editor on July 31, 2017

We’ve posted the June First American Loan Application Defect Index, which estimates the frequency of defects, fraudulence and misrepresentation in the information submitted in mortgage loan applications. The Defect Index increased 1.2 percent in June 2017 as compared with the previous month, and increased 16.7 percent as compared to June 2016. The Defect Index is down 17.6 percent from the high point of risk in October 2013.

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Topics: Housing, Home Sales, Fraud, Mortgages, Loan Application Defect Index

What Caused Real House Price Growth To Cool In May?

By FirstAm Editor on July 24, 2017

First American’s proprietary Real House Price Index (RHPI) looks at May 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on the impact of wages and lower interest rates on consumer house-buying power – a brief reprieve from rising real house prices.

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Topics: Interest Rates, Real House Price Index, income

The Persistent Force Behind Lower Affordability

By Mark Fleming on July 20, 2017

First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model examines June 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on how the real estate market is performing versus its potential.

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Topics: Existing Home Sales, Potential Home Sales, mortgage rates

When Does A Home Become A Prison?

By Mark Fleming on July 19, 2017

The housing market is suffering from a supply shortage, not a demand dilemma. As Millennial first-time homebuyer demand continues to increase, the inventory of homes for sale tightens. At the same time, prices are increasing, so why aren’t there more homeowners selling their homes?

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Topics: insider, mortgage rates

Which Markets Are Wilting Under A Loan Defect Risk ‘Heat Wave’?

By FirstAm Editor on June 28, 2017

We’ve posted the April First American Loan Application Defect Index, which estimates the frequency of defects, fraudulence and misrepresentation in the information submitted in mortgage loan applications. The Defect Index increased 2.5 percent in May 2017 as compared with the previous month, and increased 13.7 percent as compared to May 2016. The Defect Index is down 18.6 percent from the high point of risk in October 2013.

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Topics: Loan Application Defect Index

What Caused Real House Prices To Decline For The First Time In 8 Months?

By FirstAm Editor on June 26, 2017

First American’s proprietary Real House Price Index (RHPI) looks at April 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on the impact of wages and lower interest rates on real house prices.

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Topics: Interest Rates, Real House Price Index, income

Housing Market Faces Dilemma As Millennial Demand Continues To Grow

By Mark Fleming on June 20, 2017

First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model examines May 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on how the real estate market is performing versus its potential.

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Topics: millennials, Existing Home Sales, Potential Home Sales, affordability

Here’s Why A Fed Rate Increase Does Not Matter To The Housing Market

By Mark Fleming on June 13, 2017

With the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to decide whether to increase the Federal Funds rate in just a few days, the potential for an increase in mortgage rates dominates the housing news and industry chatter. Yet, changes to the short-term rate matter little to the housing market.

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, insider