Recent Posts by Mark Fleming

Mark Fleming is the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation and leads First American’s Decision Sciences team.

Fear the Boom and the Bust: A Hayek vs. Keynes Rap Anthem

By Mark Fleming on February 4, 2016
In case you hadn’t heard last week, a Twitter debate exploded between the well-known rapper B.o.B and the also, although possibly not equally, well-known astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson. The debate centered on B.o.B’s belief that the world is actually flat and Tyson’s scientifically reasoned explanation of how we know the world is actually ... Read More

Interest Rates

Is China Keeping U.S. Mortgage Rates at Historic Lows?

By Mark Fleming on February 2, 2016
In December 2015, the Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate for the first time in almost a decade. At the time, there was much discussion regarding the impact this move would have on the still burgeoning housing recovery, specifically through higher mortgage rates and an increased cost of borrowing. Initially, it ... Read More

Housing

The Persistent REO

By Mark Fleming on January 21, 2016
In November 2015, real-estate-owned (REO) sales as a share of all residential home sales remained steady on a month-to-month basis, moving up slightly to 8.2 percent from 8.0 percent in October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. On a year-over-year basis, this was a decrease of 1.2 percentage points when compared to November 2014, which had an ... Read More

Housing

Market Potential Unaffected By Know-Before-You-Owe

By Mark Fleming on January 19, 2016
For the month of December, First American’s proprietary Potential Home Sales model (previously called the Existing-Home Sales Capacity model) showed that the market potential for existing-home sales increased by 0.5 percent compared to November and decreased by 5.1 percent compared to a year ago. The Potential Home Sales model provides a gauge on ... Read More

Housing

What to Look for in Housing in 2016

By Mark Fleming on January 6, 2016
It's the time of year when all economists worth a grain of salt (feel free to exclude me from that category) give their "forecast." Well, economic forecasters are about as correct as the local weatherman, unless you happen to be the weatherman in Southern California! Read More

In The News Interest Rates Federal Reserve

The Wisdom of the Crowd: Myth or Reality?

By Mark Fleming on December 22, 2015
How much does a cow weigh? Penelope the cow, to be specific. A seemingly simple question, with an answer that gives credit to the notion that aggregation of information in groups results in more accurate information than independent prediction. This particular question was posed by Planet Money to over 17,000 people of diverse ages and ... Read More

Interest Rates Real Estate Sentiment Index