Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

Recent Posts by Mark Fleming

Mark Fleming is the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation and leads First American’s Decision Sciences team.

Will Rising Mortgage Rates Trigger An 'arms' Race For Home Buyers?

By Mark Fleming on July 22, 2022

In May 2022, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) jumped up by 50.8 percent year over year, which is the fastest growth in the more than 30-year history of the series. This rapid annual decline in affordability was driven by a 20.... Read More›

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

How The Fundamentals Influencing Housing Market Potential Have Changed

By Mark Fleming on July 20, 2022

The market potential for existing-home sales in June was estimated to be 5.47 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), down 2.5 percent compared to last month, and 13.1 percent lower than one year ago, which is near the same level as in... Read More›

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

Affordability Declines To Its Lowest Level Since 2007

By Mark Fleming on June 29, 2022

In April 2022, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) jumped up by 45.6 percent compared with a year ago, accelerating faster than any other point in the 30-year history of the series. This rapid annual decline in affordability was ... Read More›

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Two Trends Slowing Housing Market Normalization

By Mark Fleming on June 20, 2022

The market potential for existing-home sales in May fell 2 percent to 5.62 million at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), compared with last month, and is 10.5 percent lower than one year ago. Yet, the market potential for home sales remains ... Read More›

Interest Rates Potential Home Sales tenure

How Aggressive Will The Fed Need To Be To Get Inflation Under Control?

By Mark Fleming on June 13, 2022

The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve is to maintain stable inflation and full employment, and while the latter goal has mostly been achieved post-pandemic, the former remains far from target. One of the primary instruments of monetary policy the Fed... Read More›

Interest Rates

The Housing Market Is Slowing By Design, But Don't Expect A Bust

By Mark Fleming on May 27, 2022

In March 2022, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) increased 32.5 percent year over year, which is the fastest growth in the more than 30-year history of the series. This rapid annual decline in affordability was driven by ... Read More›

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability