Recent Posts by Mark Fleming

Mark Fleming is the chief economist for First American Financial Corporation and leads First American’s Decision Sciences team.

Affordability Challenges Prompt a House Price Slowdown

By Mark Fleming on May 28, 2024
Mortgage rates continued their spring surge in April 2024, rising to the highest level in five months and helping drag affordability down by 1.5 percent compared with March, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). On an annualized basis, affordability decreased by 9 percent. Two factors drove the year-over-year decline in affordability – a ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

An Overvalued Housing Market May Be Returning

By Mark Fleming on April 29, 2024
In March 2024, mortgage rates increased and affordability fell modestly by 0.1 percent compared with February, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). On an annualized basis, affordability decreased by approximately 5 percent. Two factors drove the year-over-year decline in affordability – a 6.2 percent annual increase in nominal house ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

How “Higher for Longer” Impacts the Housing Market

By Mark Fleming on March 22, 2024
In January 2024, mortgage rates declined and affordability improved by nearly 2 percent compared with December, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). However, on an annualized basis, affordability decreased by approximately 7 percent. Two factors drove the sharp annualized drop in affordability – a 7.1 percent annual increase in nominal ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

New Existing-Home Sales Outlook Report Projects February Uptick in Sales, Despite Rising Mortgage Rates

By Mark Fleming on March 13, 2024
On average, nearly 40 percent of all existing-home sales in a year occur during the spring home-buying season between April and June. The warming weather and the end of the academic school year make for a more optimal time to move and fuel the seasonal increase in housing market activity. In the spring of 2023, home sales were lackluster. Housing ... Read More

Interest Rates Federal Reserve Potential Home Sales Mortgage Rates

Revisiting Boom-Bust Markets After Recovery in House Price Growth

By Mark Fleming on February 27, 2024
In December 2023, home buyers received a welcome holiday gift as mortgage rates fell and affordability improved by 6 percent over November, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). However, on an annualized basis, affordability decreased by nearly 9 percent. Two factors drove the sharp annualized drop in affordability – a 7.7 percent annual ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

House Prices Reach a New Peak, But Not Everywhere

By Mark Fleming on January 23, 2024
In November 2023, the Real House Price Index (RHPI) leaped 11 percent on an annual basis. Affordability improved modestly on a monthly basis, as mortgage rates fell from the previous month. Two factors drove the sharp annual decline in affordability – a 7.7 percent annual increase in nominal house prices, according to our First American Data & ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability