Unadjusted house prices are higher than ever, but what is the real story?

By Mark Fleming on May 24, 2018
As the home-buying season continues, the inventory of homes for sale remains historically low, while demand is increasing. Not surprisingly, house prices continue to rise. In March, unadjusted house prices increased by 6.4 percent compared with a year ago and they are now 8.7 percent above the housing boom peak for unadjusted house prices reached ... Read More

Real House Price Index Affordability

What Does the Change in the 10-Year Treasury Note Mean for Housing Affordability

By Mark Fleming on May 7, 2018
At the May Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting last week, all eyes were on the 10-year Treasury yield. In late April, that yield topped 3 percent for the first time in more than four years. With yields on the rise, housing market participants expect this to mean higher interest rates from central banks. It’s often overlooked that the popular 30-year, ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates Real House Price Index Federal Reserve Affordability

Will Rising Mortgage Rates Hurt House prices?

By Mark Fleming on March 26, 2018
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee increased the Federal Funds rate last week, and signaled they expect to increase rates further later this year. It’s clear we have entered the rising interest rate environment that many have been predicting for years. With rising rates the new reality for the housing market, earlier this month we ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates Real House Price Index

How Wage Growth Both Helps and Hurts Housing Affordability

By Mark Fleming on February 26, 2018
Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that average hourly earnings increased in January by 2.9 percent compared with a year ago. This was a big splash of economic news that had ripple effects on the housing market, as the 2.9 percent increase in wages surpassed expectations. Read More

Real House Price Index Affordability

The Affordability Crisis That Isn't

By Mark Fleming on January 29, 2018
That nominal house prices are growing faster than household incomes is often used as the basis for arguing that we are facing an affordability crisis. It is true that unadjusted house prices grew faster than income between November 2016 and November 2017. Our Real House Price Index (RHPI) showed that unadjusted house prices increased by 6.0 ... Read More

Real House Price Index Affordability

The Drag on Affordability Explained

By FirstAm Editor on December 21, 2017
First American’s proprietary Real House Price Index (RHPI) looks at October 2017 data and includes analysis from First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming on the market forces that are keeping a lid on affordability. Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Income Affordability