What’s the ‘Real’ Story Behind the Strength of the U.S. Consumer?

By Xander Snyder on October 9, 2023

In mid-September, coverage of the Census Bureaus’ latest monthly retail sales release focused on how the 2.5 percent year-over-year increase in retail sales in August was a sign of ongoing consumer strength. But the retail sales report is not inflation adjusted, it is expressed in nominal terms. This nominal 2.5 percent growth, therefore, excludes ...

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Commercial Real Estate

CRE X-Factor – The End of the Beginning for the CRE Adjustment?

By Xander Snyder on September 15, 2023

With interest rates high, transaction volumes low, and property prices generally on the decline, it’s safe to say that the commercial real estate (CRE) market is undergoing an adjustment period. The market adjustment has triggered a process referred to as “price discovery,” in which many buyers are sitting on the sidelines waiting for lower entry ...

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Commercial Real Estate CRE X-Factor

Banks Continue to Report Tighter Lending Standards for CRE

By Xander Snyder on September 5, 2023

With interest rates well above recent lows and commercial property prices declining, commercial real estate (CRE) credit remains tight. How tight, exactly, is one of the questions that the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) attempts to answer.

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Commercial Real Estate

CRE X-Factor – Why Operating Costs for Commercial Properties have Soared

By Xander Snyder on August 10, 2023

As rent growth has softened across all asset classes, property owners and operators have increased their focus on limiting expense growth. However, this has proven difficult for some line items, as both property insurance, and repairs and maintenance (R&M) expenses have increased significantly over the last three years. In this edition of the ...

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Commercial Real Estate CRE X-Factor

What Happens to Cap Rates if…

By Xander Snyder on August 7, 2023

Multifamily capitalization (cap) rates have now increased for three consecutive quarters, the first time since the Great Financial Crisis. This is a sign that investors are requiring higher yields today in order to purchase a property.

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Commercial Real Estate Potential Cap Rate Model

CRE X-Factor – Assessing the State of the CRE Reset

By Xander Snyder on July 12, 2023

The commercial real estate (CRE) market is in a reset. Deal activity is down, and property prices are declining. We recently examined what clues history can provide about the potential length and depth of CRE price declines. Today, let’s examine what current CRE fundamentals can tell us about where we are in the process of resetting.

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Commercial Real Estate CRE X-Factor

CRE X-Factor - When Will Commercial Property Prices Recover?

By Xander Snyder on July 10, 2023

The data is clear – commercial real estate (CRE) property prices are undergoing an adjustment. With that in mind, many industry professionals and investors are asking the next logical questions – how far will prices fall and when will prices bottom out and recover. Examining historical CRE data offers some clues, but, as the old adage goes, ...

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Commercial Real Estate

You Can’t Build What You Can’t Fund

By Xander Snyder on June 19, 2023

Securing commercial real estate (CRE) financing in today’s market is no easy task. After the three bank failures this year, which triggered increased regulatory scrutiny of bank-held CRE loans, banks have pulled back on lending. This is especially true for riskier varieties of lending, such as construction loans, which involve assets that are not ...

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Commercial Real Estate

Bank Pull Back Creates Construction Lending Opportunity for Debt Investors

By Xander Snyder on June 12, 2023

Building a property from the ground up entails substantially more risk than purchasing an existing building that is already generating income. Likewise, financing construction is riskier than lending against existing structures since development projects don’t generate income to pay loan interest until they are completed. For this reason, most ...

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Commercial Real Estate

Uncertain Economic Outlook Keeps Renters Where They Are, Pushing Cap Rates Up

By Xander Snyder on May 23, 2023

In times of economic uncertainty, people tend to stay put. After all, why take on new financial obligations, like an apartment lease, when the future is less certain? Today, though unemployment remains low, inflation remains high, and the recent slew of layoffs at tech companies has many worried about their own financial position. The recent, ...

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Commercial Real Estate Potential Cap Rate Model Multifamily