After the recent bank failures, a good deal of attention has been paid to commercial real estate (CRE) debt held by banks of different sizes. But banks aren’t the only CRE lenders. Insurance companies, mortgage REITs, and private debt funds that lend investors’ money also regularly make CRE loans. Taken together, banks of all sizes only account ...
Read More ›Where is the Risk Exposure to Commercial Real Estate?
Why it’s So Hard to Convert Offices into Housing
At first glance, converting old office buildings into apartments seems like an obvious solution to two pressing real estate challenges. There’s a national housing shortage of several millions of housing units, and office space is substantially underutilized due to the adoption of remote work. Declining office use is a significant risk to office ...
Read More ›CRE X-Factor: Retail’s Tailwinds Turn to Headwinds
Retail real estate remains a challenged asset class, although locations catering to experiential services so far appear to be more resilient than others. Even before the onset of the pandemic, the rise of eCommerce and the shift away from mall culture created an uncertain outlook for many types of retail locations. In this month’s X-Factor, let’s ...
Read More ›What Does Consumer Spending Signal about the Health of Retail Real Estate?
The performance of retail real estate is closely tied to consumer spending trends. Over the last year, consumers have benefitted from meaningful wage growth, but inflation has erased most of those gains. Similarly, despite nominal retail sales growing by approximately 5.4 percent in February, retail spending in real terms has fallen over the last ...
Read More ›CRE X-Factor: Outlook for Industrial Real Estate Remains Positive, Despite Dip from Record-Setting 2021
Industrial space remains in high demand across the country, despite announcements of tabled expansion plans from eCommerce companies and retail store closures. That strong demand has fueled record levels of construction that will ease price and rent growth to more moderate, single-digit rates as the new industrial supply comes to market. The ...
Read More ›Supply Chain Lessons Shape Long-Term Industrial Real Estate Demand
Demand to lease and own industrial space remains robust, despite a general cooling of commercial real estate (CRE) activity occurring across asset classes. Net absorption, a measure of leasing demand relative to available space, remained high in the fourth quarter of last year compared with historical levels, at 112 million square feet. Though ...
Read More ›CRE X-Factor: Analyzing the Commercial Real Estate Market Slowdown
Several indicators now point firmly to a broad cooling in commercial real estate (CRE) markets. The extent of the cooling, however, varies meaningfully by asset class and geography.
Read More ›Why the Dip in Multifamily Transactions may be Short-Lived
The rapid change in the macro-economic environment has resulted in some dire forecasts for multifamily. Higher interest rates, a slowdown in household formation rates from the heady pandemic-era pace, decelerating rent growth,and increasing vacancy rates have already sapped trading activity. In terms of multifamily transaction volume, the fourth ...
Read More ›What Do Fewer Multifamily Transactions and Greater Pricing Uncertainty Mean for Cap Rates?
Slowing demand to lease apartments is now reducing demand to own multifamily properties. Declining rent growth, as well as higher interest rates, has limited the prices that prospective buyers can afford to pay for a property, opening a gap in price expectations between buyers and sellers. As a result, multifamily transaction volumes in the fourth ...
Read More ›Commercial Real Estate Interest Rates Potential Cap Rate Model
CRE X-Factor: Watch CMBS Maturities for Early Indications of Risk
Since Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) are actively traded, their prices fluctuate more than other types of commercial debt as interest rates move. Given this interest rate sensitivity, CMBS provide insight into what trends may evolve in private lending markets, which are larger but less transparent, so they are less likely to quickly ...
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