Key Points:
- Improved affordability gives homebuyers a spring lift, with house-buying power in February up 10 percent relative to list prices from a year ago.
- Even with those gains, affordability remains below pre-pandemic levels, and the pace of recovery has diverged across markets.
- Markets with smaller remaining affordability gaps are better positioned for stronger sales activity this spring as buyers will be able to find a greater share of homes within their budgets.
Our research at the national level recently pointed to encouraging progress: affordability is improving as house-buying power rises relative to median list prices. But real estate is inherently local, and national averages hide meaningful differences across markets.
While affordability improved from a year ago in all 50 major markets, every market remains below its pre-pandemic position—though some are much closer than others. Those differences in relative affordability may help determine which markets are more likely to see a stronger spring sales rebound.
“Markets closest to their pre-pandemic footing aren’t just improving—they’re first in line for a spring rebound.”
Why the Path to Recovery Looks Different Across Markets
Rising mortgage rates in 2022 reduced what home buyers could afford across every market, widening the gap between buying power and home prices. Since then, conditions have gradually improved as incomes have risen, mortgage rates have eased, and price growth has slowed—or declined—in some markets. Those changes have left markets at very different points in how far buying power has closed the gap with list prices.
To illustrate those differences, we estimated the change in each market’s buying power to list price ratio relative to its pre-pandemic baseline1. The chart shows the percentage point change in that ratio between February 2019 and February 2026. A negative value means the ratio remains below its 2019 level, so buyers can afford less relative to the median list price than they could before the pandemic. Values closer to zero indicate markets that have recovered more of that lost ground. We grouped the top 50 markets into three broad categories.
1. Best Positioned for a Spring Rebound
This group includes markets where both home-price growth and buying-power gains have been more subdued than in other large markets. On a household‑weighted basis, buying power in this group is up 8 percent since 2019, while median list prices are up 24 percent. That combination leaves this cohort with the smallest remaining affordability gaps—about 13 percentage points below pre pandemic levels, on average.
San Francisco is the closest market to its pre pandemic affordability position, at roughly one percentage point below its February 2019 level. That does not mean San Francisco is suddenly affordable. Rather, it means affordability has moved back toward its pre pandemic norm, even if that norm was already relatively strained.
2. The Thaw is Real, but so is the Chill
Markets in this group have partially unwound pandemic era affordability pressures. Price growth has cooled—and in some markets has even declined over the past year—but the earlier post 2019 run up was much larger, so buying power is still playing catch up. With new listings and inventory still below pre pandemic norms in many markets, sellers have faced less pressure to cut prices. On a household weighted basis, buying power in these markets is up 9 percent, while median list prices are up 37 percent—a gap that leaves this cohort about 27 percentage points below its pre pandemic affordability position.
3. Still Frosty…and then there’s Poor Hartford
This group reflects the most strained affordability conditions since 2019: buying power has grown the least, while home prices have risen the most. On a household‑weighted basis, buying power is up just 6.0 percent since 2019, compared with a 42.8 percent increase in median list prices. Unlike the other categories, prices are still rising in these markets—up 3.5 percent from February 2025 to February 2026—as new listings and inventory remain below pre pandemic norms in many cases. Those forces leave the cohort more than 40 percentage points below its pre‑pandemic affordability position.
Poor Hartford, Conn., which is an outlier even among the most strained markets. While house-buying power has risen in nearly every large metro since 2019—typically about 7–8 percent—Hartford was the lone market where it fell, down 11 percent (the next weakest, Milwaukee, was down less than 1 percent), a gap that leaves the city about 75 percentage points below its pre pandemic affordability position. Philadelphia, Pa., and Providence, R.I., follow a similar—but less severe—pattern, with buyers still roughly 42 to 50 percentage points below their pre pandemic affordability position, as resale supply has remained tight.
Where Spring Sales May Bloom First
Improved affordability suggests the housing market is entering spring on somewhat stronger footing than a year ago, even if the recent rise in mortgage rates has tempered some of that momentum. That means any pickup in sales is likely to be uneven rather than broad-based. Markets closest to their pre-pandemic footing aren’t just improving—they’re first in line for a spring rebound. In those markets, a greater share of homes has come back within buyers’ budgets. Elsewhere, where affordability gaps remain wider, the thaw is likely to come more slowly.
[1] The buying power‑to‑list price ratio compares how much the median household can afford to buy with the median list price in a given market. A value above 100 means the median household’s buying power exceeds the median list price, while a value below 100 means the median household’s buying power is less than the median list price.
