The Market Dynamics Fueling the Great Housing Shortage

By Mark Fleming on April 20, 2018
In March, the housing market continued to underperform its potential. Actual existing home sales are 4.5 percent below the market potential for home sales, according to our Potential Home Sales model. The lack of supply is the primary culprit. The inventory of homes for sale in most markets remains historically tight, yet demand continues to rise ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates Homeownership Progress Index

Two Trends Signal Housing Supply Relief on the Way

By Mark Fleming on April 18, 2018
It’s no secret that the limited supply of homes for sale is the biggest issue facing the housing market today. From a short-term perspective, this month’s overall pace of housing starts, 1.32 million units, may modestly alleviate the supply shortage. Housing starts increased 1.9 percent month over month and are 10.9 percent higher compared with ... Read More

Housing

Will Wage Growth Continue -- One Number May Tell the Story

By Mark Fleming on April 6, 2018
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the employment situation report for March. Here are the headlines. Total non-farm payroll jobs increased by 103,000 in March. Total non-farm payroll jobs have increased every month since October 2010. Since that date, the U.S. economy has added more than 17.5 million jobs. The unemployment rate ... Read More

Housing Income

Will the Return of ARMs Lead to Surging Loan App Defect Risk?

By Mark Fleming on March 29, 2018
It’s been a long time coming – a rising rate environment. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage has been below 4.5 percent since late 2013 and is now finally moving consistently higher. According to the consensus of economic forecasts, it is likely to approach 5 percent by the end of this year. This matters for defect, fraud and misrepresentation risk ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates Loan Application Defect Index

Will Rising Mortgage Rates Hurt House prices?

By Mark Fleming on March 26, 2018
As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee increased the Federal Funds rate last week, and signaled they expect to increase rates further later this year. It’s clear we have entered the rising interest rate environment that many have been predicting for years. With rising rates the new reality for the housing market, earlier this month we ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates Real House Price Index

How High is Too High for Mortgage Rates?

By Mark Fleming on March 20, 2018
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is just around the corner, and experts agree that an increase in the Federal Funds Rate is almost certain. In fact, the expectation of future Fed rate hikes is already putting upward pressure on mortgage rates. The benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage rate jumped three basis points to 4.4 percent ... Read More

Housing Interest Rates