Key Points:

• Boomers and Generation X dominate homeownership today, but as they age out, tens of millions of family homes will become available.
  
  
• Millennials and Generation Z—followed by Generations Alpha and Beta—will soak up that supply by forming households first and shifting into ownership later as they mature, sustaining demand for decades.
  
  
• The overall number of households and homeowners will expand through the middle of the century.

“As older households age out of homeownership and hand it off to millennials and Gen Z the demographics relay will shape housing supply and demand for years to come.”

The housing market is on the brink of a demographic transformation. Millennials are squarely in their prime home-buying years, with Generation Z (and, later, Generations Alpha and Beta) close behind, steadily adding to demand. At the same time, baby boomers, who own most of today’s housing stock, are aging in place, keeping turnover low and family-sized homes in prime markets scarce for now. But it also sets up a gradual, durable release of inventory as late-life moves accumulate. How these two demographic dynamics play out will shape housing inventory, prices, and affordability trends for decades to come.

To gauge this decades-long shift, we combined Census population projections with historical headship and homeownership patterns to estimate the number of households and homeowners from 2025 through 2060. Figure 1 shows projected households (light bars) and homeowners (dark bars) by generation at five-year intervals. Reading left to right within each cohort reveals who adds households, who becomes an owner, and when growth plateaus or declines. Together, the panels trace a gradual handoff from older cohorts (boomers, Gen X) to younger ones (millennials, Gen Z, and eventually Alpha and Beta)—a process we explore below.

Boomers and Generation X: The Slow Release

Boomers and Generation X mark the opening leg of this housing relay. At a life stage when homeownership peaks, these older cohorts dominate today’s owner-occupied housing, but late-life-dynamics will ultimately reduce their share of the national housing supply. Aging brings downsizing, relocations for care, and estate transitions—gradually recycling housing stock for younger buyers.

Boomers start at a high-water mark with 39.9 million households and 31.1 million homeowners in 2025—an ownership rate of 78 percent. Many are choosing to remain in place through their retirement years, helped by paid-down mortgages. The trend of “aging in place” is facilitated by technological advancements that allow seniors to live more independently in their homes. Over time, health, accessibility, and proximity to family will prompt moves to smaller or care-oriented settings, and natural attrition will reduce their numbers to 1.5 million households by 2060. That transition will add a steady supply of larger, well-located homes for the next generation of buyers.

Generation X, the demographic ‘middle child,’ serves as the bridge. Smaller than boomers at roughly 35 million households, Generation X enters the next two decades in peak earning years. Late-career and retiring Gen Xers are poised to power a final leg of home buying, adding about 1.8 million owner households and lifting their ownership share to 75 percent by 2040. After that, they shift from net buyers to net sellers, gradually releasing suburban housing stock and extending the boomer-led supply wave into the mid-2040s and beyond.

Millennials, Gen Z, and Beyond: Demand Delayed, Not Denied

Behind them, younger generations step forward—but on a different timetable. Later marriage, delayed child-rearing, and years spent prioritizing education and careers have pushed household formation and homeownership for younger generations further out. Add economic and affordability shocks—from the Great Financial Crisis to the pandemic housing boom and subsequent freeze—and renting has become the default for longer. These demand-side pressures delay—but don’t prevent—homeownership.

Millennials, the largest adult generation, are squarely in their prime buying years. As they convert education and career gains into ownership, their household count rises modestly—from about 35.8 million in 2025 to roughly 39.6 million in the early 2050s—but the share of home-owning households grows much faster. Homeowners are projected to increase by about 10.6 million as the ownership rate climbs from 51 to 73 percent. Together, a modest rise in households and a strong renter-to-owner shift will provide a long, steady tailwind for demand through the late 2050s before leveling off.

Next comes Generation Z, who is just beginning its housing journey. As they leave school and set out on their own, Gen Z households are projected to expand from about 13 million in 2025 to nearly 40 million by the late 2040s, eventually surpassing millennials. The move into ownership comes later—much like millennials—as education and career milestones are met. The Gen Z ownership rate will rise from 25 percent in 2025 to about 66 percent by 2060, lifting owners to roughly 27 million. Momentum will persist through the 2050s, then begin to tap out around the 2060s as the cohort moves past peak its buying years.

Further out, Generations Alpha and Beta form the next wave. Their presence will be limited until the mid-2030s, when the oldest begin moving out on their own and forming households. By the 2050s, ownership will increase as incomes rise and family formation accelerates, just as millennials move past their peak buying window and Gen Z demand begins to slow. By 2060, these cohorts will represent a deep bench of future buyers, extending the generational handoff into the second half of the century.

The Long Runway for Housing Demand and Homeownership

Zoom out from the cohort stories and the next 35 years look less like a surge and more like a generational relay. Figure 2 shows the cumulative changes in households and homeowning households from older sellers to rising buyers between 2025 to 2060. The number of households is expected to rise by 17.9 million (about 13 percent) over that time, while the number of homeowner households is expected to climb by 8.2 million (about 8.2 percent).

Turning Demographic Change into Opportunity

The coming decades will be defined by boomers (and later, Gen X) gradually selling homes and millennials and Gen Z stepping up as buyers—a demographic relay that will shape housing supply and demand for years to come. As older households age out of homeownership, prime, centrally located neighborhoods will reopen to younger families, fueling both demand and opportunity.