Multifamily transaction volume in the first quarter of 2024 hit the lowest levels observed since the early days of pandemic quarantines. In a recent blog post, we analyzed what types of units were trading in terms of unit quality – that is, Class A, B or C [1]. In this X-Factor, we’ll examine multifamily transaction volume, but from different ...
Read More ›CRE X-Factor - Multifamily Transaction Volume is Down, but is there a Hidden Urbanization Trend?
What’s that Apartment Building Worth? Fewer Multifamily Transactions Drive Market Uncertainty
It’s hard to know what apartment buildings are worth nowadays. With multifamily transaction volume at its lowest point in four years, comparable transactions, or “comps”, which are often used as a reference point to estimate value, are few and far between. The limited availability of comps increases the uncertainty of property valuation estimates. ...
Read More ›Commercial Real Estate Multifamily Market Potential Cap Rate Model Multifamily
Analyzing CRE Transaction Volume – Retail a Relative Bright Spot in Bleak Q1
Commercial Real Estate (CRE) transaction volume is usually measured in terms of nominal dollars. “Nominal” just means that these dollars aren’t inflation adjusted. Of course, inflation surged to levels not seen since the early 1980s in 2022. But standard inflation adjustments leave something to be desired in the case of CRE transaction volume, as ...
Read More ›CRE X-Factor - Renters May Gain Some Temporary Leverage as Flood of New Apartment Supply Comes to Market
Similar to the for-sale housing market, apartment leasing trends are seasonal. Typically, both renters and home buyers are more likely to move in the spring than in the winter. After all, while people in warm-weather climates might have an easier time moving year-round, for many it’s hard to move when there’s snow on the ground or other inclement ...
Read More ›CRE X-Factor - The Link Between CRE Mortgage Maturities and Transactions
Over the last two years, commercial real estate (CRE) transaction volume has declined precipitously as interest rates soared. Currently, the market is at a multi-year trough in transaction activity, and many are wondering when it may pick back up. Though it’s hard to say with certainty, one factor that will invariably play a role in the recovery ...
Read More ›Measuring the Foreclosure Risk in Commercial Real Estate Assets
While there is a substantial quantity of commercial real estate (CRE) debt maturing this year, there’s nothing inherently dangerous about a mortgage coming due. Challenges arise when maturities occur simultaneously with one of two other challenges. The first is when a building is not generating sufficient income to cover its expenses, which is ...
Read More ›What’s Behind the Surge in Industrial Cap Rates?
Though the industrial market is softening compared to the pandemic days of double-digit rent growth and record-low vacancy, it is far from weak. Despite slowing rent growth and modestly rising vacancies, demand to lease industrial space remains strong, driven by long-term trends such as rising eCommerce sales, retailers’ need for modern logistics ...
Read More ›Commercial Real Estate Industrial Real Estate Potential Cap Rate Model
CRE X-Factor - Will the Post-Valentine’s Day Retail Sales Report Come up Roses?
This Valentine’s Day, while couples nationwide enjoy romantic dinners, exchange chocolates and flowers, or cozy up at home with a nicer-than-average bottle of wine, economists will instead be focusing on something slightly less romantic: how much money people are spending on retail goods and services. While the retail sales report that comes out ...
Read More ›Why Apartment Rents are Poised to Decline in Former Pandemic Hot Spots
Nationally, a substantial amount of new apartment supply will be delivered in 2024. Increased supply empowers renters with more choices, prompting landlords to compete through pricing. Some cities have a lot more supply coming to market than others, and each market’s ability to absorb new units, as well as how many vacant units are left over after ...
Read More ›CRE X-Factor - Great Rate Expectations for 2024
In a recent article, we juxtaposed the Federal Reserve’s projections with the “wisdom of the crowd” to consider possible interest rate outcomes in 2024. In this X-Factor, we explore the uncertainty surrounding interest rate expectations more broadly. For example, if there is a soft landing, there’s still a chance, according to the Fed’s own ...
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