Key Points:
Mortgage maturities continue to slowly work their way through the commercial real estate (CRE) market, leaving elevated delinquency rates in their wake. However, the maturity wall appears to be reaching a turning point in 2026. While the volume of CRE debt coming due this year remains large, it is no longer increasing, and fewer extensions are being granted for maturing loans.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) estimates that $875 billion of commercial mortgages will mature in 2026, down from $957 billion originally scheduled for 2025. This is the first decline since 2022, when the MBA began tracking maturities across all CRE lender types.
At the same time, the prevalence of loan extensions – often referred to as “amend and extend” or “extend and pretend” – is declining. Far fewer extensions were granted in 2025 than in 2024, falling from $384 billion worth of extensions from 2024 into 2025 to $200 billion worth of extensions from 2025 into 2026. Measured as a share of expected maturities at the start of each year, extensions dropped from 41 percent to 21 percent. Fewer loans were extended last year, both in absolute and relative terms.
“For CRE borrowers, the era of ‘extend and pretend’ is giving way to ‘resolve or reset.’”
Fewer Loans are Being Rolled Forward
The following chart illustrates this shift across periods. The blue bars represent mortgages that matured as scheduled. The orange bars show the amount of debt originally scheduled to mature before extensions. The green portions represent loans that were extended into the following year. Together, the blue and green bars reflect total originally scheduled maturities, while the orange and green bars show updated maturities after accounting for extensions. The key takeaway is the shrinking green portion: a much smaller share of loans is being rolled forward, and a larger share is reaching resolution.
This decline in extensions suggests the market is becoming less reliant on delay as a holding strategy and more focused on resolution. Rather than repeatedly extending maturities, lenders are increasingly requiring a clearer path forward, whether through a refinance, sale, or workout.
Credit conditions are improving
This shift is occurring alongside a gradual improvement in credit availability. The MBA forecasts commercial mortgage originations will rise from approximately $634 billion in 2025 to $806 billion in 2026. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey from January 2026 showed some easing in bank CRE lending standards, though trends vary by bank size.
Recent changes to bank capital reserve requirements could provide an additional tailwind, if they remain in their current form after the comment period ends in June. That would add yet another tailwind to the broader credit environment, even as distress persists.
Fewer Extensions, More Resolution
The maturity wall remains significant, and distress has not gone away. However, the dynamics of this phase of the cycle are shifting. Fewer loans are being extended, and more are moving toward resolution, whether through refinancing, asset sales, restructurings, or defaults. For CRE borrowers, the era of ‘extend and pretend’ is giving way to ‘resolve or reset.’