In this special mini episode of The REconomy Podcast™, Chief Economist Mark Fleming and Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi explore two housing markets that don’t always dominate the national conversation but offer important lessons on affordability and inventory dynamics: Oklahoma City and Tulsa. They examine why affordability improved in both markets over the past year, how lower mortgage rates helped boost buying power, and why affordability remains significantly worse than before the pandemic. Their discussion also highlights the growing divergence in housing supply between the two cities, the role of population growth and migration in supporting demand, and what buyers and sellers should watch as inventory continues to rebuild.
Odeta Kushi - Hello, and welcome to a special mini episode of The REconomy Podcast, where we discuss economic issues that impact real estate, housing and affordability. I'm Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, and here with me is Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. Hey, Mark.
Mark Fleming - Hey Odeta, today we are taking a quick trip to Oklahoma, specifically Oklahoma City and Tulsa, two markets that may not always dominate the national housing conversation, but they actually tell a pretty interesting affordability story.
Odeta Kushi - Not to mention these are two markets with a lot going on from Oklahoma City's Bricktown Revival to Tulsa's Art Deco scene and growing tech presence. Both cities are very high up on my places to visit list. And, on that affordability point that you made, it's one we've been seeing in a lot of markets lately. Affordability improving a bit, but still nowhere near pre-pandemic normal.
Mark Fleming - That's right, and buyers might be saying, take my breath away and then seeing the monthly payment. Get it out of the way early. I was expecting you would notice that one.
Odeta Kushi - Top Gun. Very on brand for you, Mark. So, let's start with affordability. According to our latest Real House Price Index data, which adjusts prices for household income and mortgage rates, affordability in February improved in both markets compared to a year ago. In Oklahoma City, the Real House Price Index improved by 7.6% year over year and in Tulsa by an even more impressive 8.9%. You know, I love a decimal point.
Mark Fleming - Exactly. But there's a but here. As we alluded to just a moment ago, context matters. Compared with February of 2020, affordability is still significantly worse. The RHPI is 60% worse in Oklahoma City and 67% worse in Tulsa compared with pre-pandemic levels.
Odeta Kushi - Conditions improved over the last year, but buyers are still dealing with a much more expensive market than they were just over five years ago.
Mark Fleming - And the biggest reason affordability improved wasn't falling house prices, it was mortgage rates, actually. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in our February data was 6.05%, to be exact. That's about 80 basis points lower than a year earlier.
Odeta Kushi - But household incomes did help. Income growth was up 1.3% on an annual basis in Oklahoma City and actually up 3% in Tulsa.
Mark Fleming - Meanwhile, nominal house prices were still rising modestly, up 1.6% in Oklahoma City and 1.9% in Tulsa. So, prices were still pushing against affordability improvement just a bit.
Odeta Kushi - So the short version is rates did a lot of that heavy lifting, incomes helped and home prices were still rising, just more slowly than the frenetic pandemic pace, of course.
Mark Fleming - Exactly. This isn't a prices fell dramatically story. It's more a buying power story.
Odeta Kushi - Right, home prices never really said bye bye bye. They kept rising just more slowly while mortgage rates improved affordability.
Mark Fleming - You know, I'm actually proud of myself that I recognized that NSync reference on an Oklahoma housing market podcast episode. Impressive.
Odeta Kushi - You get your decade and I get mine, and NSync dominated my upbringing. So, I have to bring them up at some point. All right, moving on from affordability to inventory, because this is where Oklahoma City and Tulsa start to diverge a little bit. We always describe housing inventory like a bathtub. New listings are the faucet, sales are the drain and active inventory is the water level in the tub.
Mark Fleming - Indeed we do, as our listeners know. It's one of my favorites. Oklahoma City's bathtub is finally looking pretty balanced. Active inventory in April was up over 10% compared with a year ago and is basically back to its pre-pandemic normal, only about half a percent below the 2018-2019 average for the same month.
Odeta Kushi - Both the faucet and drain are open. New listings were up 4% year over year, while closed sales and pending sales were also higher on an annual basis. Compared with pre-pandemic levels, activity is pretty close to normal again.
Mark Fleming - Okay, so Tulsa though still looks tighter. Active inventory was up about 6% from a year ago, but is still more than 22% below pre-pandemic levels.
Odeta Kushi - And the listing side is still constrained. New listings in Tulsa were up slightly from last year, but they remain more than 17% below pre-pandemic norms. At the same time, pending sales were up nearly 8% year over year, so demand is still active.
Mark Fleming - So the drain is open, but the faucet still needs to be a little more footloose. That was pretty bad, actually. I know, I'm not sure why it didn't happen sooner. I mean, hopefully it won't be the last time either.
Odeta Kushi - That was so bad and it might be the first time Kevin Bacon has appeared in a housing inventory discussion. I don't know, hopefully it is. Now, population growth is another important piece of the story. Oklahoma City's population grew nearly 6% since 2020, while Tulsa grew just over 5%.
Mark Fleming - And migration may be driving some demand in these markets. Net migration accounted for about 73% of Oklahoma City's population gain last year and nearly 90% in Tulsa.
Odeta Kushi - Right, which matters because even when affordability is strained, population growth helps support housing demand.
Mark Fleming - So let's put this all together. Affordability improved in both markets over the last year, mainly because mortgage rates declined and household buying power improved.
Odeta Kushi - But affordability is still much worse than before the pandemic and the supply story differs across the two markets. Oklahoma City looks much closer to a normalized inventory environment, while Tulsa remains tighter.
Mark Fleming - And, going forward, the big question is whether inventory keeps rebuilding. If more listings come onto the market and rates stay below last year's levels, affordability could continue improving.
Odeta Kushi - But, of course, if mortgage rates stop helping, even modest home price growth could start putting pressure back on affordability.
Mark Fleming - Nobody puts affordability in a corner.
Odeta Kushi - Oh my gosh, wrong decade. We're really covering all the decades today. But we'll allow it since it's the end of the episode. And, with that, thank you for joining us on this special mini episode of The REconomy Podcast. If you have an economics question you'd like us to feature in a future episode, email us at economics@firstam.com. And, as always, if you can't wait for the next episode, you can follow us on LinkedIn. Until next time.
Mark Fleming - There you go.
Thank you for listening, and we hope you enjoyed this episode of The REconomy Podcast from First American. We're pleased to offer you even more economic content at firstam.com/economics. This episode is copyright 2026 by First American Financial Corporation. All rights reserved.
This transcript has been edited for clarity.