The Sacramento Bee
From the article:
During the downturn, new home construction plummeted along with jobs and personal incomes. Today, a major forecast for the Sacramento region suggests these measures of economic health are poised to rise together over the next four years.
Home building, an economic powerhouse in the region when it's in full swing, will return in force, rising to levels in line with population growth by 2017, according to the latest forecast by the University of the Pacific's Business Forecasting Center.
But the upswing in housing is unlikely to turn into another bubble, said economist Jeffrey Michael, head of the business forecasting center. The massive price inflation of 2004 and 2005 was fueled by easy credit and exotic mortgages.
"There'll be nothing like that this time around," Michael said.
What he and others do expect is a home building upturn based on fundamental factors such as employment and population growth and an eventual influx of Bay Area residents seeking affordable housing.
In recent months, Sacramento's new home market has shown strong growth in pricing and sales. Builders retain a sense of caution based on the hard lessons of the downturn, when construction came to a near standstill and thousands in the building industry lost their jobs.