Economic Center Blog
Welcome to the First American Economic Center Blog, a top source for the latest housing market research and analysis driven by Chief Economist Mark Fleming.

What Will It Take To Reduce The Housing Supply Deficit?

By Mark Fleming on March 6, 2019

Last week, the Census Bureau released its Residential Construction report for December. Housing completions decreased 8.4 percent compared with last December and continued to fall short of the number of new housing units necessary to keep pace with household formation. Housing starts also decreased 10.9 percent in December compared with a year...

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Topics: Housing, Insider, housing starts, homeownership

What Triggered The Biggest Increase In House-Buying Power In Five Years?

By Mark Fleming on February 25, 2019

Housing affordability is a function of three economic drivers: nominal house prices, household income and mortgage rates. When incomes rise, consumer house-buying power increases. Declining mortgage rates or declining nominal house prices also increase consumer house-buying power. Our Real House Price Index (RHPI) uses consumer house-buying...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Real House Price Index, Affordability, Insider

Six More Months Of Housing Winter Or Early Spring Home-Buying Season?

By Mark Fleming on February 20, 2019

In the first month of the new year, the housing market continued to underperform its potential, but gave us signs of promise for the future. Actual existing-home sales are 5.3 percent below the market’s potential, according to our Potential Home Sales model. That means the market has the potential to support 293,000 more home sales than the...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Insider, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

What Is The Impact Of Student Loan Debt On House-Buying Power?

By Odeta Kushi on February 15, 2019

Contrary to many reports, student loan debt is not an insurmountable barrier to homeownership for millennials. Student loan debt is more likely to delay the timing of homeownership, but it does not necessarily prevent homeownership. But, this begs the questions, how does student loan debt impact house-buying power? And, is higher education a...

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Topics: Millennials, Education, Homeownership Progress Index, Insider, homeownership

Where Is The Housing Market Cooling The Most?

By Mark Fleming on January 28, 2019

Throughout 2018, consistent growth among three driving forces – mortgage rates, household income, and unadjusted house prices – defined the housing market. These three factors are also the core metrics that comprise the Real House Price Index (RHPI). November 2018 was no exception, as household income, mortgage rates, and the unadjusted house...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Real House Price Index, Affordability, Insider

Can Stock Market Volatility Help Home Buyers?

By Mark Fleming on January 21, 2019

In December, the market potential for existing-home sales in December increased 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.15 million compared with a year ago, but the housing market still underperformed its potential by 9.6 percent, according to our Potential Homes Sales Model. Month over month, the gap between actual...

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Topics: Interest Rates, Federal Reserve, Insider, homeownership, Potential Home Sales

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