Where are Mortgage Rates Headed Through the End of 2023?

By Mark Fleming on August 28, 2023
Two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates, dragged affordability lower in June. The 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased by 0.3 percentage points and nominal house prices accelerated by 0.8 percent compared with May. While household income increased by 0.4 percent, it was not ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Does Resurgent House Price Growth Signal a Bottom in the Housing Market?

By Mark Fleming on July 31, 2023
In May, housing affordability fell relative to one month ago, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates reduced house-buying power by 0.7 percent. Nominal house price growth ticked up 0.6 percent compared with one month ago, while the average 30-year, fixed mortgage rate increased ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Why Higher Mortgage Rates Don't Always Lead to Declining House Prices

By Mark Fleming on June 26, 2023
In April, housing affordability improved relative to one month ago, as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), income and mortgage rates boosted house-buying power by 2.3 percent. Median household incomes increased by 0.1 percent compared with March, while mortgage rates dipped by 0.2 percentage points. Nominal house ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Seasonal Demand Drives Resurgent House Price Growth and Decline in Affordability

By Mark Fleming on May 31, 2023
In March, housing affordability declined, snapping a four-month streak of increasing affordability. The decline in March occurred as two of the three key drivers of the Real House Price Index (RHPI), nominal house prices and mortgage rates, moved higher, decreasing house-buying power by 2.7 percent and dragging affordability down relative to one ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

Why Declining House Prices and Softening Labor Market Will Not Trigger a Foreclosure Tsunami

By Mark Fleming on April 21, 2023
Affordability has now improved for four straight months, yet remains down 32 percent since February 2022, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). Recently falling mortgage rates have overpowered the affordability-dampening effects of higher nominal house prices. Nominal house price appreciation has slowed dramatically in response to ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability

What Makes a Boom-Bust Market?

By Mark Fleming on March 30, 2023
Affordability has now improved for three straight months, yet remains down 39 percent since January 2022, according to the Real House Price Index (RHPI). Nominal house price appreciation has slowed dramatically in response to dampened demand. Nationally, annual nominal house price growth peaked in March 2022 at 21 percent, but has since ... Read More

Interest Rates Real House Price Index Affordability