Important, but easy to overlook shifts in investment trends may be contributing to our current era of low interest rates. An excess supply of global savings relative to the demand for that money for investments is driving down interest rates, which can be thought of as the price of money. The neutral rate of interest, which is monitored by the ... Read More ›

Many people understand the “natural rate of unemployment,” and if you don’t, you can probably guess what it is – the rate of unemployment when the labor market reaches equilibrium. What many people don’t know is that a similar concept exists in monetary policy. Read More ›

First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming was interviewed on FOXBusiness earlier this week and discussed the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policy and the state of the job market. Read More ›

First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming was interviewed on CNBC and Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi was interviewed on Nightly Business Report last week, where they discussed the refinance boom driven by low mortgage rates and the tailwinds boosting the housing market. Read More ›

First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming was interviewed on CNBC and Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi on Bloomberg TV earlier this week and discussed the impact of historically low rates on the housing market, and what the Fed minutes indicate about the direction of rate policy and the economy. Read More ›

The housing market essentially reached its potential in July 2019, as actual existing-home sales were 0.05 percent above the market’s potential. Existing-home sales in 2019 are running at a pace similar to 2015, even though rates have fallen and household income has increased this year. Housing market potential benefitted from a 10.6 percent ... Read More ›