It’s a near certainty that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the short-term Federal Funds rate this week. The CME group estimates the probability of a 25 basis-point increase at 90.2 percent. Some may fret about how this will impact the housing market, but they are missing the point on mortgage rates and affordability for first-time home buyers.
Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met for the second to last time this year. As most prognosticators expected, the FOMC decided to leave the short-term Federal Funds rate unchanged. While good news for those with credit card debt, car loans and adjustable rate mortgages, the impact of FOMC inaction, or action for that matter, is less clear for the mortgage market. Additionally, Jerome Powell was nominated to be the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve and he is widely believed to hold a similar stance on monetary policy as the current chair, Janet Yellen.
This month, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will consider again whether to increase the benchmark Federal Funds Rate for a third time this year. As I stated when the FOMC was contemplating a rate increase earlier this year, increasing the short-term Federal Funds rate has little impact on longer term rates like the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. But, more importantly, the FOMC may start reducing its $4.5 trillion portfolio of bonds purchased during the global financial crisis through various rounds of quantitative easing (QE). Almost 40 percent of that portfolio is mortgage backed securities (MBS) that the Fed started buying in 2009. As explained by the FOMC in June, the “Quantitative Un-Easing” plan, could begin at any point this year with the reduction of $4 billion a month in MBS. The pace of MBS sales would increase by $4 billion each quarter up to a maximum of $20 billion per month.
With the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to decide whether to increase the Federal Funds rate in just a few days, the potential for an increase in mortgage rates dominates the housing news and industry chatter. Yet, changes to the short-term rate matter little to the housing market.
We invite you to browse the fourth quarter 2016 First American Real Estate Sentiment Index, which is based on a quarterly survey of independent title agents and other real estate professionals, providing a unique gauge on the real estate market using the crowd-sourced wisdom and expertise of real estate experts.
What a difference an election makes. Since the election, we have seen a pronounced increase in the popular 30 year-fixed mortgage rate. In the words of Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, financial markets expect that expansionary fiscal policy will accelerate U.S. economic growth and increase inflation. As a result, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now over 4 percent. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will likely announce this week a raise in the target range of the Federal Funds rate, from 25-to-50 basis points (bps) to 50-to-75 bps.
We invite you to browse the second quarter 2016 First American Real Estate Sentiment Index, which measures title agent sentiment on a variety of key market metrics and industry issues. In 2016, the survey has also tracked title agent sentiment regarding the implementation of the Know-Before-You-Owe rule, also referred to as the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) rule. It’s based on a quarterly survey of independent title agents.
With the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week, many are wondering if an interest rate hike is in the works. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the current market expectation of a 0.50 percent rate increase in June is extremely low – 4 percent. However, the likelihood jumps to 27 percent in July. But, whether the Fed raises rates in June, July or later this year, how much impact would it have on the current housing market?
This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is holding their March meeting where they could, just possibly, decide to increase the benchmark Federal Funds Rate again. According to one survey by CNBC, the vast majority expect rates to remain unchanged. In that same survey, nearly all the respondents believed a rate hike was likely in the June meeting.
It's the time of year when all economists worth a grain of salt (feel free to exclude me from that category) give their "forecast." Well, economic forecasters are about as correct as the local weatherman, unless you happen to be the weatherman in Southern California!