Real Estate Outlook Declines on Election Uncertainty and Heightened Expectations for Fed Rate Hikes

We invite you to browse the fourth quarter 2016 First American Real Estate Sentiment Index, which is based on a quarterly survey of independent title agents and other real estate professionals, providing a unique gauge on the real estate market using the crowd-sourced wisdom and expertise of real estate experts.

Highlights from the Q4 2016 RESI include:

  • Impact of election and heightened expectations for rate increases: “Overall, bullishness about transaction volumes in the coming year waned, largely driven by the decline in refinance transaction expectations,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American. “Uncertainty leading into the election, as well as increasing confidence in the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate increases, tempered expectations for housing demand and lowered the overall price growth forecast.”
  • Outlook for transaction volume wanes: Confidence for transaction volume growth over the next 12 months declined 11.8 percent from Q3 2016 and fell 3.8 percent compared with a year ago. However, expectations for growth in residential purchase transactions remain positive in the vast majority of states.

  • Price growth expectations soften: Prices across all property types are expected to grow by 3.5 percent over the next 12 months, which is down from last quarter’s expectation of 4.1 percent.

For more information and analysis, including title agent sentiment on price and transaction volume growth by property type nationally and at the state level, please visit the Real Estate Sentiment Index.

 

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